Augsburg vs Schalke 04: match statistics

Both teams have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 1.8 points per game over that period, so current form does not give either side a clear advantage. Augsburg have been significantly more clinical, however, scoring 22 goals in five matches—4.4 per game—compared with Schalke’s 13 goals, or 2.6 per match. The hosts have also conceded 11 goals, meaning their attacking potential comes with the risk of defensive errors. Schalke have conceded 9 goals in their last five outings, but the lower league position—15th compared with Augsburg’s 1st—favours the home side. Home advantage and a significantly higher goal output point to an Augsburg win, although the match should produce chances for both teams.

Although both teams recorded BTTS in only 40% of their last 5 matches, their current attacking numbers point to a genuine chance of goals at both ends. Augsburg averaged 4.4 goals per match during this period with an xG of 1.91, while Schalke averaged 2.6 goals with an even higher xG of 2.48. The hosts conceded an average of 2.2 goals, compared with 1.8 for Schalke, meaning neither defence has consistently provided complete security. Particularly significant is that Schalke created more high-quality chances than Augsburg, while Augsburg have shown clearly better finishing efficiency in recent matches. The low BTTS rate leaves a risk of a one-sided result, but the combination of high attacking output and goals conceded slightly favours a scenario in which both teams score. Therefore, BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team fails to score—not automatically a 0:0 draw or a match in which neither team scores—does not appear to be the stronger selection.

Both teams come into this match on highly productive scoring runs: Augsburg have averaged 4.4 goals scored across their last five games, while Schalke have averaged 2.6. Augsburg’s matches produced an average of 6.6 goals during this period, as the team not only scored 22 goals but also conceded 11, whereas Schalke’s games averaged 4.4 goals. The 2.5 goal line was exceeded in 80% of Augsburg’s last five matches and in all five of Schalke’s games. High attacking activity is also confirmed by the xG figures: 1.91 for the hosts and 2.48 for the visitors. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the safest choice with a projected total of 3.30 goals.

Augsburg have shown greater attacking potential in their last five matches, averaging 4.4 goals compared with Schalke’s 2.6, while their half-time goal difference stood at +4 versus -2 for their opponents. The hosts averaged 2.0 goals before the break, whereas Schalke managed only 0.8, supporting the expectation that Augsburg will lead at the break. Schalke were trailing at half-time in 60% of their last five matches, while Augsburg averaged 2.4 goals after the interval and conceded just 1.0. Both teams won 3 of their last 5 matches, but Augsburg’s significantly higher goal output, combined with home advantage, makes an Augsburg lead at half-time followed by a full-time victory the most likely scenario in the HT/FT market: 1/1.