Aurora vs Gualberto Villarroel SJ: match statistics

Aurora have a clear home advantage: they average 2.00 goals at home, compared with Gualberto Villarroel SJ’s 0.75 goals scored away from home. The hosts also create higher-quality chances, as reflected by their average xG of 1.74 versus 1.26 for the visitors, while they register 6.5 shots on target per match—twice as many as their opponents (3.25). The visiting side have not won a single away game, have lost 50% of such matches, and failed to score in as many as 38% of them. Both teams have recorded 1 win, 2 draws and 2 defeats in their last five matches, but Aurora have lost just 13% of their home games and boast a positive goal difference of +3. The hosts’ defence is not flawless, conceding an average of 1.63 goals, but the visitors’ poor away scoring record and Aurora’s superiority in chance creation point to a home win.

Aurora’s seasonal BTTS rate stands at 78%, while Gualberto Villarroel SJ’s is 63%, matching the league average and providing a clear argument for goals from both sides. Aurora concede an average of 1.56 goals per match, compared with 1.63 for the visitors, while their clean-sheet rates are low at 22% and 13%, respectively. Gualberto Villarroel SJ have averaged 2.2 goals scored and 2.0 conceded over their last 5 matches, with BTTS landing in 80% of those games. Aurora’s form is less convincing, having scored just 1.0 goal per match across their last five appearances, although their opponents conceded an average of 2.0 goals during this period. In addition, Aurora’s average xG of 1.41 and the visitors’ xG of 1.26 suggest that both teams should create enough chances to find the net.

The 2.79-goal projection is based on Aurora’s average xG of 1.41 and the visitors’ xG conceded of 1.70, combined with Gualberto Villarroel SJ’s high xG of 1.26 against the 1.64 allowed by the hosts. Aurora concede an average of 1.56 goals per match, while the visitors concede 1.63, with clean sheets recorded in only 22% and 13% of matches, respectively. The 1.5 line was covered in 78% of Aurora’s matches and 75% of Gualberto Villarroel SJ’s fixtures, providing a very clear signal for at least two goals. The visitors’ last five matches produced an average of 4.2 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 80% of them; for the hosts, this threshold was surpassed in 60% of matches. Over 1.5 remains the strongest pick, as even with lower finishing efficiency from one side, the defensive data of both teams significantly reduce the likelihood of a goalless game or a match featuring only one goal.

The most likely HT/FT outcome is a draw at half-time followed by an Aurora win, as the hosts score only 0.33 goals per match before the break, compared with 0.25 for the visitors. Aurora have been level after 45 minutes in 33% of their matches, while their last five games have produced as many as 60% half-time draws. After the interval, the hosts improve markedly: they average 1.11 goals, whereas Gualberto Villarroel SJ score only 0.50 and fail to find the net in 63% of second halves. Aurora’s season-long advantage is also reflected in their superior conversion rate, 11% versus 6%, and a higher number of shots on target, 3.89 versus 3.25. However, the visitors are dangerous in their current form, averaging 2.2 goals per match over their last five appearances, so a draw or a turnaround in their favour after being level at half-time remains a significant risk.