Austin vs Nashville SC: match statistics

Nashville SC hold a clear advantage in their overall season record: they have won 18 of 27 matches and conceded 21 goals, while Austin have managed 7 wins in 27 games and conceded 47. The visitors also have the edge defensively on the road, conceding an average of 0.69 goals per match and keeping a clean sheet in 54% of games, compared with Austin's 1.15 goals conceded and 31% clean sheets at home. However, the hosts could pose a challenge: they average 1.46 goals and an xG of 1.42 at home, while Nashville score 1.08 goals away from home with an xG of 1.22. The last five matches also suggest there is little between the sides: Austin are unbeaten but have drawn four, while Nashville have recorded two wins, two draws and a defeat. Therefore, an away win is the most likely outcome, although Austin's 46% home draw rate and Nashville's 38% away draw rate mean a share of the points remains a realistic scenario.

BTTS has occurred in 57% of Austin's home matches, but in only 31% of Nashville's away games, indicating a moderate chance of both teams scoring. Austin averages 2.93 goals at home and has scored in every such match so far, so the main uncertainty is the visitors' attacking output. Nashville have failed to score in 38% of their away games, while their averages of 1.08 goals and 3.46 shots on target are clearly below Austin's home figures of 2.93 goals and 6.29 shots on target. On the other hand, Austin have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their home matches, although BTTS occurred in 80% and 40% of the teams' last five matches, respectively. Nashville's stronger away figures across the season make it slightly more likely that at least one team will fail to score—BTTS - No.

Austin averages 2,93 goals at home, and at least two goals are scored in 86% of its home matches, supporting Over 1.5 goals. However, Nashville concedes just 0,69 goals per away match and keeps a clean sheet in 54% of its games, so Austin’s high average should not be applied directly to this matchup. Over their last five matches, Austin averaged 1,4 goals and Nashville 1,6; the total goals per game in those matches averaged 2,6 and 2,4, respectively. The 2,65-goal projection gives Over 1.5 goals the strongest edge, while the 2.5 line remains close to a toss-up.

A draw at half-time is the most likely outcome, as Nashville were level at the break in 62% of their away matches and kept a clean sheet in 85% of those games. Austin led at the break in only one of their last five matches, averaging just 0.2 goals before half-time over that period. The hosts should have the clearer advantage after the break: they score an average of 1.64 goals in the second half at home, while Nashville average 0.54 in the second half away. Austin’s strong home win rate of 93%, compared with Nashville’s 38% away win rate, also supports a home win at full-time. Austin’s four draws in their last five matches call for caution, but a half-time draw followed by a home win best combines the current trend with their advantage after the break.