Austria Salzburg vs First Vienna: match statistics

Austria Salzburg are enjoying an excellent run of form: they have remained unbeaten in their last 5 matches, recording 4 wins and 1 draw, with a 12:3 goal difference. Over this period, the hosts have averaged 2.4 goals per match, while First Vienna have scored 8 times, averaging 1.6 goals per game. The visitors’ defence has been slightly tighter across their last five matches, conceding just 2 goals compared with the hosts’ 3, although First Vienna have also suffered 1 defeat during this run. Both teams won their respective league matches without conceding, but Austria Salzburg have the stronger five-match form record: 2.6 points per game compared with 2.0. The hosts’ edge in consistency and attacking output points towards a narrow victory, although the visitors’ solid defence increases the likelihood of a draw.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Austria Salzburg have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches, with an average xG against of just 0.84. The hosts are also highly effective in attack: they have scored an average of 4.0 goals, generated 2.13 xG and recorded 7.0 shots on target per match, making a one-sided result a realistic scenario. Across the season, the BTTS rate for both teams currently stands at 0%, while only 13% of league matches have produced goals for both sides. The form from the last five matches increases the likelihood of an away goal, as First Vienna have averaged 1.6 goals with 1.32 xG, but their BTTS rate over this period is only 20%, compared with 40% for Austria Salzburg. The most likely outcome therefore remains one in which at least one team, primarily the visitors, fails to score.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 2.60 goals clearly exceeds this line. Austria Salzburg averaged 2.4 goals scored across their last five matches, while their average xG stood at 1.66, with 18 shots and 7 on target at home in the available sample of the season. First Vienna averaged 1.6 goals scored in their last five games, and their xG of 1.32 indicates that they should also create scoring opportunities. Both teams had at least three goals in 40% of their last five matches, but the low percentage of games in which both teams scored—40% for Austria and 20% for Vienna—limits confidence in Over 2.5. The 1.5 line requires only two goals and is more clearly supported by both recent attacking output and the combined xG potential.

Austria Salzburg are in better form in terms of results: across their last five matches, they have averaged 2.4 goals and 2.6 points, compared with First Vienna’s 1.6 goals and 2.0 points. The hosts won four of those five matches and did not lose any, while the visitors suffered one defeat despite also being on a solid run. Salzburg led at the break in 80% of their recent matches, compared with 60% for First Vienna, while both teams conceded an average of 0.0 goals before half-time, increasing the significance of the hosts scoring first. After the break, Salzburg’s advantage is even more pronounced, as they average 1.2 goals per match compared with just 0.4 for First Vienna. The 1/1 HT/FT outcome is the strongest selection, although the limited seasonal data for this scenario means that a draw at half-time followed by a home win remains a significant possibility.