Auxerre vs Brest: match statistics

Brest sit 8th, while Auxerre are only 15th, and the visitors’ key advantage remains the quality of the chances they create away from home: their average xG stands at 2.31 compared with the hosts’ 1.68 at home. Brest also average 22.5 shots and 8 on target per away match, compared with Auxerre’s 15.5 shots and 7 on target, while scoring 2 goals per game away from home against the visitors’ 1 goal per match at their own stadium. Both teams concede an average of 1.5 goals, but Auxerre have already conceded 11 goals in 4 matches this season, indicating clear defensive problems. Their recent form is similar in terms of points, with both teams averaging 1.2 points per game across their last five appearances, but Brest have lost only once and drawn three times during this period, so they should be closer to victory. The hosts have not failed to score at home, but Brest have also scored in every away match, further strengthening the prediction of an away win in a game featuring goals.

The BTTS signal is clear, as both teams have scored in 100% of Brest’s matches this season and 50% of Auxerre’s, compared with the league average of 56%. Over the last five matches, this rate stood at 60% for Auxerre and 80% for Brest, with an average of 2.2 and 1.8 goals conceded respectively. Brest score an average of 2.0 goals per match, while Auxerre concede 1.5; meanwhile, the hosts should create chances against a visiting defence that also allows an average of 1.5 goals. The attacking potential is confirmed by xG: 1.98 for Auxerre and 2.31 for Brest, while neither team has kept a clean sheet so far this season. The main risk to the selection is Auxerre’s average of only 1.0 goal scored and the fact that the hosts have failed to score in 50% of their matches; however, the overall data still more strongly supports a scenario in which both teams score.

The match profile clearly points to goals: Brest score an average of 2.0 goals per game, while Auxerre concede 1.5, with neither team having kept a clean sheet so far. In their last five matches, Auxerre conceded as many as 2.2 goals per game, while Brest scored 1.8, which particularly strengthens the visitors’ attacking potential. The quality of chances created is also high: average xG stands at 1.98 for Auxerre and 2.31 for Brest, while the teams register 21.5 and 22.5 shots per game, respectively. At least 2 goals were scored in 100% of Brest’s matches to date and in 50% of Auxerre’s games, making Over 1.5 the safest choice with a projected total of 3.12 goals.

Brest have the clearer attacking potential: they average 2.0 goals per match compared with Auxerre’s 1.0, while their average xG stands at 2.31 versus the hosts’ 1.98. The visitors also average 8.0 shots on target per match, compared with Auxerre’s 5.5, increasing the likelihood of a turnaround after the break. A draw at half-time is a credible outcome, as both teams have been level at the break in 50% of their matches so far, while over their last five games these figures stood at 50% and 40%, respectively. Auxerre concede an average of 1.0 goal in the first half and have not led at the break on any occasion, whereas Brest score an average of 1.0 goal before half-time. After the interval, the hosts have conceded as many as 1.75 goals per match in their last five games, making a draw at half-time followed by a Brest win at full-time the most likely outcome: X/2.