Avaí vs Sport Recife: match statistics

Sport Recife sit 7th, while Avaí are only 18th, but the profile of this match points to a closely contested encounter. The visitors are unbeaten in their last five matches, although four of those ended in draws, and they share the points in 40% of their away fixtures. Avaí have conceded just 4 goals in their last five appearances and keep a clean sheet in 45% of their home matches; away from home, Sport Recife concede only 0.60 goals per game and keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches. The hosts create slightly better chances at home, with an average xG of 1.42 compared with Sport’s 1.18, yet they score only 1.09 goals per game, while the visitors average 0.90. With both defences looking solid and neither side particularly efficient in front of goal, a draw appears to be the most likely outcome.

The strongest argument for a BTTS - No scenario is Sport Recife’s away defensive record, conceding an average of just 0.60 goals and keeping a clean sheet in 50% of matches. Avaí score 1.58 goals per home game, but in their last five outings they have managed only 1.0 goal per match, with an xG of 1.30. Sport Recife average just 0.90 goals away from home and fail to score in 40% of matches, while their shot conversion rate is only 8%, compared with Avaí’s 11%. Although Sport Recife’s last five matches produced BTTS - Yes in 80% of cases, their full-season BTTS rate is only 40%, clearly below the league average of 48%. Avaí do have a 75% BTTS rate for the season, but their recent matches have been far more closed, with both teams scoring in only 40% of cases. Therefore, it is more likely that at least one team will fail to score.

Sport Recife’s away profile clearly limits the number of goals: the team concedes just 0.60 goals per match on average and keeps a clean sheet in 50% of its games. Avaí scores 1.58 goals at home, but its average output has dropped to 1.0 over the last five matches, while conceding just 0.8 goals. Overall, matches involving both teams have finished with under 3.5 goals in 75% of Avaí’s games and as many as 90% of Sport Recife’s, compared with the league average of 2.29 goals. Recent form also points to a moderate scoreline: Avaí has a 5:4 goal difference across its last five matches, while Sport stands at 7:5. The projected total of 1.95 goals gives a clear edge to the Under 3.5 goals bet, as at least four goals are required for it to lose.

The strongest scenario is a draw at both half-time and full-time, as Avaí have drawn 58% of their matches, while Sport Recife have drawn 40%. First halves are usually very cautious: Avaí score and concede an average of 0.5 goals in them, while Sport average 0.4 goals, with half-time draws occurring in 58% and 40% of matches, respectively. In addition, both teams frequently keep a clean sheet before the break—Avaí in 58% of cases and Sport in 60%—which limits the likelihood of an early breakthrough. Sport are on a strong five-match unbeaten run, but as many as 60% of those games ended in draws, while Avaí have shown better attacking output at home, with an average xG of 1.57 compared with their opponents’ 1.18, increasing the likelihood of an equaliser even if the visitors score first.