Avellino vs Bari 1908: match statistics

Avellino averages 1.35 goals per home match with an xG of 1.31, while Bari record only 0.71 goals away with an xG of 1.01, indicating a clear home advantage in chance creation. The hosts average 4.18 shots on target and 11.35 shots total per game versus the visitors’ 2.41 on target and 9.53 total, and a conversion rate of 12% vs 7% points to greater finishing efficiency from Avellino. Defensively Avellino concedes 1.47 goals at home, while Bari concede 1.82 away; additionally in the last 5 matches Bari have let in 11 goals versus 7 conceded by Avellino, highlighting defensive issues for the visitors. In the last 5 games Avellino average 1.4 points and 7 goals scored (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), whereas Bari average 0.6 points and only 4 goals, and have failed to score in 47% of away fixtures versus 29% for the hosts. Considering the advantage in xG, shots on target and conversion, I forecast an Avellino win (1).

I back BTTS - Yes at 62% vs 38% for No Goal. Avellino posts a season BTTS rate of 61% vs Bari 47%, with the league average at 55%, favoring the both-teams-to-score scenario. Both sides concede frequently: Avellino allows 1.39 goals per game, Bari 1.82, and clean sheet expected rates are only 17% and 18%, increasing the likelihood of both teams scoring. Additionally, xG are 1.26 for Avellino and 1.01 for Bari, with an average of 3.72 and 2.41 shots on target respectively; Avellino’s last 5 matches show 7 goals for and 7 against (BTTS 60%), while Bari has 4 scored and 11 conceded (BTTS 40%). So despite Bari’s low scoring average (0.71 goals per game), the goal and defensive data point toward BTTS - Yes.

I project 1.50 goals for Avellino and 1.05 for Bari, yielding a combined expected total of 2.55 goals; these values derive from Avellino scoring 1.17 and Bari conceding 1.82 (average ≈1.50) and Bari scoring 0.71 and Avellino conceding 1.39 (average ≈1.05). This combined expectation is very close to the league average of 2.56 and confirms both teams’ propensity for goal games: seasonally Over 1.5 occurred in 78% of Avellino’s matches and 82% of Bari’s, while Over 2.5 occurred in 56% and 53% of cases respectively. Additionally Avellino averages 11.39 shots (3.72 on target) with a conversion rate of 10%, whereas Bari averages 9.53 shots (2.41 on target) with a conversion of 7%; in the last 5 matches Bari conceded 11 goals and Avellino scored 7, which increases the risk of a higher goal tally. Consequently I assess the probability of Over 1.5 at ~86%, Over 2.5 at 56% and Over 3.5 at 22%, therefore the strongest signal from the data is to back Over at the 1.5 line.

The strongest signal is the high proportion of half-time draws: Avellino draw at half in 61% of matches and Bari in 65%, giving an average of about a 63% chance of a draw at 45 minutes. In the second half Avellino dominates — the hosts score on average 0.67 goals after the break and have earned 26 points in second halves, i.e. an average of 1.44 points per match in the second half, while Bari score 0.24 goals after the break and have 11 points and an average of 0.65 points per match in the second half. Avellino also creates more quality chances: xG 1.26 versus 1.01 for Bari, 3.72 shots on target versus 2.41 and a higher conversion rate 10% vs 7%, which increases the likelihood of a home goal after the break. For these reasons the most reliable HT/FT scenario is a draw at half and a home win (X/1) — I assign this scenario 38% probability; alternatively draw-draw (X/X) I rate at 22%, and a home lead from the start (1/1) at 12%.