Avia Świdnik vs Chełmianka Chełm: match statistics

Avia Świdnik holds an advantage in offensive efficiency: the hosts score on average 2.42 goals at home and have a 33% conversion rate, compared to 1.83 goals away and 22% shooting efficiency for Chełmianka. Avia has scored 61 goals this season versus the visitors' 45 goals, and at home they have 0% of matches without a goal (they always score), which increases their chances of winning. The visitors, however, create more chances — on average 12.25 shots and 4.5 on target per match, and their away xG is 1.50 versus the hosts' xG of 1.44, which indicates a real threat. Both teams concede on average 1.17 goals per match, but Chełmianka has a higher clean sheet rate (42% vs 33%) and better form over the last 5 matches (PPG 2.6 vs the hosts' 2.0). In summary, given the 2.42 home goals and 33% conversion, I give a slight edge to Avia, although the visitors remain dangerous due to a higher volume of shots and superior form.

Both teams have season BTTS rates of 58% (Avia 58%, Chełmianka 58%) versus the league rate of 56%, which already favors the "both teams to score" option (BTTS - Yes). In the last 5 matches BTTS was 60% for Avia and 80% for Chełmianka; Avia scored 14 goals (2.8 per match), Chełmianka 15 goals (3.0 per match), and both conceded 4 goals each (0.8 per match), indicating significant attacking activity combined with defensive vulnerability. Chance-quality analysis: Avia has a season xG of 2.18 and 8.5 shots on target per game versus Chełmianka with season xG against 1.03 and 4.5 shots on target against; at the same time Chełmianka’s last 5 matches show an average attacking xG of 1.68 and season goals per match of 1.83 while Avia’s last 5 xG against is 1.07 — this presents realistic scoring opportunities for both sides. Clean sheet percentage is 42% for both teams (i.e. No Goal in 42% of matches), and 0:0 matches occur only in 8% of cases; given Avia’s higher conversion (26% vs 22% for Chełmianka) and recent form over the last 5 rounds, the BTTS scenario is stronger. Weighing season-long data and strong signals from the last 5 matches, I assess BTTS probability at 72% and No BTTS at 28%.

The xG model and defensive comparison yield combined expected goals of approximately 2.88: Avia’s xG is 2.18 versus Chełmianka’s defense xG allowed of 1.03, which averages to ~1.61 for Avia; similarly Chełmianka’s xG of 1.50 versus Avia’s defense 1.03 gives ~1.27 for the visitors. With total lambda = 2.88, a Poisson distribution implies roughly a 78% chance of Over 1.5 goals, ~55% for Over 2.5 and ~33% for Over 3.5. Historical data corroborate the offensive nature: Chełmianka have 92% of matches Over 1.5 goals, Avia 67%, and in their last 5 matches Avia scored 14 goals (avg 2.8), Chełmianka 15 goals (avg 3.0) with each conceding 4. Shot metrics support this picture: Avia averages 19.0 shots and 8.5 on target with a 26% conversion, Chełmianka 12.25 shots and 4.5 on target with a 22% conversion, therefore the strongest signal from the data is Over 1.5 (pick: Over at the 1.5 line).

Avia Świdnik shows a strong signal for a lead at the break: they led at half-time in 8 matches (73% of their games) and average 1.18 first-half goals versus 0.7 for Chełmianka. Additionally, the hosts’ xG is 2.18 compared to 1.50 for the visitors, and average shots on target are 8.5 vs 4.5, indicating a clear home advantage in chance creation. Nevertheless, Avia’s matches end with both teams scoring in 58% of cases, and the visitors average 0.8 goals in the second half, so there is a real risk of conceding after the break. The hosts earn an average of 2.42 points per match versus 1.83 for the visitors and have a higher shot conversion rate (26% vs 22%), so the most likely scenario is maintaining the lead at half-time and a home victory (HT/FT 1/1).