Avia Świdnik vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg: match statistics

Avia Świdnik is the favorite: they have 19 wins, 7 draws and 3 losses with a goal difference of 70-31 this season, while Siarka has 11 wins, 9 draws and 9 losses with a 51-39 record. At home Avia averages 2.21 goals scored and concedes 1.07 per match, whereas Siarka away records 1.50 goals scored and 1.43 conceded — the hosts hold an advantage both offensively (+0.71 goals per match) and defensively (concede 0.36 fewer goals per match). Efficiency is key: Avia converts shots at home at 31% with an average xG of 1.42, while Siarka on the road has only a 14% conversion with xG 1.22, suggesting Świdnik is far more effective at turning chances into goals. Form also favors Avia — last 5 matches: 3 wins and 2 draws (2.2 pts per match, 4 goals conceded), whereas Siarka in their last 5 have 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss (0.8 pts per match, 5 conceded). Additionally Avia have 0% of home matches without scoring, while Siarka have 29% of away matches goalless, therefore I project a home win with probability 65%, draw 20% and away win 15%.

Both teams have a high BTTS rate: Avia 60% and Siarka 64%, versus a league average of 59%. This season Avia averages 2.0 goals per game and Siarka 1.5, while conceding 1.27 and 1.43 respectively; clean sheets occur in only 27% and 21% of matches, which increases the likelihood of both teams scoring. In the last 5 matches Avia has BTTS 80% with averages of 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded, whereas Siarka in the same period has BTTS 60% with averages of 0.8 scored and 1.0 conceded — indicating Siarka struggles offensively but still concedes goals. xG supports an offensive match profile: xG for Avia 1.47 versus 1.22 for Siarka, and xG against 1.58 and 1.46; additionally, shots on target 5.33 versus 3.83 suggest both sides create scoring opportunities. Considering season BTTS 60%/64%, low clean sheet rates 27%/21% and a high share of matches over 2.5 goals 67%/64%, I back BTTS - Yes at 72% vs 28% for No.

The xG model and shot statistics indicate a multi-goal game: expected xG is 1.47 for Avia Świdnik and 1.40 for Siarka Tarnobrzeg, totaling 2.87 expected goals. Seasonal metrics show a very high share of matches over 1.5 goals — Avia 87% and Siarka 86% (average 86.5%) — and both teams record BTTS in 60% and 64% of fixtures. For the 2.5 line seasonal overs are 67% (Avia) and 64% (Siarka), but the last 5 matches for both teams yield over2.5 at 40% and 40%, so a Poisson model on total xG=2.87 estimates roughly a 55% chance of >2.5 goals. The 3.5 line has weaker support — seasonal over35 are 53% and 36% (average 44.5%), and the xG model prices the probability of exceeding 3 goals at about 32%. Consequently the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (I assess at ~86%), which is corroborated by Avia’s average shots on target 5.33 with 19% conversion versus Siarka’s 3.83 and 14%.

I project a half-time draw and a home win at full-time (X/1) as the most probable scenario. Half-time draws occur for Avia Świdnik in 45% of matches, and the home side averages 1.0 goals by the break versus 0.85 for Siarka, indicating an even first half with a slight edge to Avia. Avia has higher chance-creation efficiency (xG 1.47 vs 1.22), more shots on target (5.33 vs 3.83) and better conversion (19% vs 14%), so they have a greater probability of scoring after the break. The second half favors turnarounds: 91% of Avia’s matches feature at least one goal after half-time, and in the last five matches Avia averaged 1.0 second-half goals versus 0.4 for Siarka. Additionally, form favors the hosts (last 5: 60% wins, 3 wins, 2.2 points per match) while Siarka have 0% wins and 80% draws (4 of 5), therefore X/1 receives the highest probability (37%).