Avia Świdnik vs Świt Skolwin: match statistics

Avia Świdnik have the home advantage: they average 1.8 goals per match at home, while Świt Skolwin concede 2.6 goals per away game. The hosts also create better chances, posting an xG of 1.76 compared with the visitors’ 1.17, and average 5 shots on target against 3.4. Świt have failed to score in 60% of their away matches, although Avia’s defence, which concedes an average of 1.8 goals at home, gives them a chance to find the net. The visitors have picked up slightly more points recently — 7 points from 5 matches compared with Avia’s 5 — but have conceded 11 goals in that spell, against 6 for the hosts. Avia’s edge in finishing and chance quality points to a home win, although their recent form does not justify a high level of confidence.

BTTS has landed in 80% of Avia Świdnik’s matches and 40% of Świt Skolwin’s, but over their last 5 games the figures were 60% and 80%, respectively. Neither team has kept a clean sheet so far, and Świt concede an average of 2.6 goals per match compared with Avia’s 2.2, increasing the chances of goals at both ends. Avia average 1.2 goals scored, with an xG of 1.32, while Świt score 1.0 goals on average with an xG of 1.17, making the visitors’ attack the weaker link in this prediction. The risk attached to BTTS - Yes is clear: Świt have failed to score in 60% of their matches this season. Even so, their average of 1.6 goals scored over their last 5 games, combined with Avia’s failure to keep a clean sheet, tips the balance in favour of BTTS - Yes.

At least 2 goals were scored in 80% of Avia’s matches and 100% of Świt’s, making Over 1.5 the option with the strongest statistical backing. Both teams concede more than 2 goals per match on average: Avia 2,2 and Świt 2,6; neither has kept a clean sheet. The hosts could benefit from Świt’s defensive weakness: Świt have conceded 11 goals in their last 5 matches, while their opponents averaged 1,80 xG. Although the Over 2.5 line was reached in 60% of Avia’s matches and 80% of Świt’s, the visitors failed to score in 60% of their matches, which weakens this option. The projected total of 3,05 goals points to a game with several goals, but the clearest statistical edge is on Over 1.5.

The strongest single scenario is Świt leading at the break and holding on to the advantage until the final whistle: in their last five matches, the visitors were ahead at half-time twice, while Avia did not lead once and were trailing three times. Over this period, Świt averaged 0.8 goals before the break, compared with Avia’s 0.2, suggesting a stronger start from the visitors. Świt also won two of their last five matches, compared with Avia’s one victory, and averaged 1.6 goals per game versus 1.2 for the hosts. However, the pick is not clear-cut, as Avia averaged 1.0 goal after half-time in their last five matches, while Świt conceded 1.4 in that period; a turnaround by the hosts therefore remains a significant alternative.