Ayeyawady United vs Thitsar Arman: match statistics

Thitsar Arman have avoided defeat in their last 5 matches, recording 2 wins and 3 draws, while Ayeyawady United have lost 3 of their 5 games. The visitors scored 13 goals and conceded 7 during this period, compared with 9 scored and 10 conceded by the hosts, giving Thitsar Arman the edge at both ends of the pitch. Home advantage does little to offset Ayeyawady’s poor record: they average 1 goal scored and 3 conceded per match at home and have yet to keep a clean sheet. The hosts create chances worth an average of 0,88 xG at home, while allowing opponents 1,83 xG, further increasing the risk of conceding. The visitors’ away statistics do not provide enough basis to assess their performance on the road, so despite the indications favouring Thitsar Arman, a draw remains a significant possibility.

In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 60% of Ayeyawady United’s games and 80% of Thitsar Arman’s, which points towards BTTS - Yes. The hosts averaged 1.8 goals scored and 2.0 conceded during this period, so their matches often gave opponents opportunities to find the net. The visitors averaged 2.6 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, further boosting the likelihood of goals at both ends. The visitors’ lower xG of 1.04 compared with the hosts’ 2.04 calls for some caution, but their tally of 13 goals in 5 matches means their attack should not be underestimated. With the league average for BTTS at 57%, the teams’ recent form provides a stronger case for BTTS - Yes than for at least one side failing to score.

Ayeyawady’s last 5 matches averaged 3.8 goals, while Thitsar Arman’s averaged 4.0; both teams went Over 2.5 goals in all of these matches. The visitors scored an average of 2.6 goals during this period, while the hosts conceded 2.0, which points to Thitsar Arman finding the net. Ayeyawady, in turn, scored 1.8 goals per match, although the xG from the last 5 matches suggests the visitors have more modest attacking potential — 1.04 compared with 2.04 for the hosts. The league average is 3.58 goals, and 75% of matches finished with at least three goals, but the discrepancy between goals scored and xG warrants caution on higher lines. Therefore, Over 1.5 goals is the strongest pick: it capitalizes on the clear scoring trend without requiring another match to produce at least three goals.

A half-time draw is a strong indicator: Ayeyawady United were level at the break in both of their home matches so far, while Thitsar Arman were level in 3 of their last 5 games. Both of Ayeyawady’s home matches also ended in draws, as did 3 of the visitors’ last 5 games. Although Thitsar Arman have scored more goals recently, averaging 2.6 compared with the hosts’ 1.8, they drew the second half in 4 of their 5 matches, which supports the scenario of no change in the score after the break. Therefore, X/X is the most likely single outcome, but its edge is not substantial: the hosts’ home-match data covers only 2 games, and an away win after a draw at half-time remains a significant alternative.