Ayr United vs Raith Rovers: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a closely contested match with a slight edge for a draw. Ayr United has a better attacking record at home (averaging 1.2 goals, xG 1.43), yet their recent form is concerning - just 1 point per game in their last 5 matches and as many as 50% draws at home this season. Raith Rovers displays solid defense away from home (64% clean sheets, averaging only 0.82 goals conceded), but they have serious offensive issues - a mere 0.45 goals per match away and 64% of games without a scored goal. The home team has a slight possession advantage (52% vs 48%) and a better conversion rate (11% vs 5%), which gives them a chance for victory. Considering Raith's defensive posture and Ayr's tendency to draw at home, the most likely outcome is a share of the points in a low-scoring encounter.
Ayr United vs Raith Rovers: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Ayr United played Raith Rovers in Championship (Scotland). The match was played on 31 January 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
Ayr United: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match. Raith Rovers: 1-2-2, 1.00 points/match.
Goal statistics
Ayr United scores 1.27 and concedes 1.18 goals per match. Raith Rovers scores 1.17 and concedes 1.04. League average: 2.50 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Ayr United 64%, Raith Rovers 30%. Over 2.5: Ayr United 36%, Raith Rovers 35%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 46%.
xG, shots and style
Ayr United has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.30. Ayr United: 11.2 shots per match, Raith Rovers: 10.6.
Match halves
Ayr United: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.36. Raith Rovers: half-time lead 22%, second-half goals 0.70.
Goals by minute
Ayr United: 0-15 (9 goals). Raith Rovers: 46-60 (6 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Championship: 2.50 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 46%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 1-0-1. Average goals 1.50, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a closely contested match with a slight edge for a draw. Ayr United has a better attacking record at home (averaging 1.2 goals, xG 1.43), yet their recent form is concerning - just 1 point per game in their last 5 matches and as many as 50% draws at home this season. Raith Rovers displays solid defense away from home (64% clean sheets, averaging only 0.82 goals conceded), but they have serious offensive issues - a mere 0.45 goals per match away and 64% of games without a scored goal. The home team has a slight possession advantage (52% vs 48%) and a better conversion rate (11% vs 5%), which gives them a chance for victory. Considering Raith's defensive posture and Ayr's tendency to draw at home, the most likely outcome is a share of the points in a low-scoring encounter.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Ayr United | Raith Rovers | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 40% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Ayr United is 9% better for: goals scored per match.
1.27 goals / match - Ayr United · 1.17 goals / match - Raith Rovers
Raith Rovers is 13% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.18 goals / match - Ayr United · 1.04 goals / match - Raith Rovers
Ayr United scores in 77% of matches (17 of 22 matches), while Raith Rovers keeps a clean sheet in 48% (11 of 23 matches).
Raith Rovers scores in 57% of matches (13 of 23 matches), while Ayr United keeps a clean sheet in 27% (6 of 22 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Ayr United
Over / Under - Raith Rovers
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Ayr United is 49% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.68 pts / match - Ayr United · 1.13 pts / match - Raith Rovers
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Ayr United - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 27%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Raith Rovers - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 22% of matches and wins 30%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.4 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +4 | -6 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.4 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 60% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (9 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Ayr United
Raith Rovers
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Championship).
Teams vs league
| Ayr United | Liga | Raith Rovers | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 2.45 | 2.50 | ▼ 2.22 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 64% | 51% | ▼ 30% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 36% | 46% | ▼ 35% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 27% | 31% | ▲ 48% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 86% | 69% | ▼ 61% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 59% | 73% | ▼ 70% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Ayr United 1 - 0 - 1 Raith Rovers. Average goals 1.50, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Ayr United vs Raith Rovers?
The Championship match finished Ayr United 2:1 Raith Rovers. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Ayr United and Raith Rovers?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Ayr United won 1, Raith Rovers won 1 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Ayr United vs Raith Rovers?
Ayr United score 1.27 goals per game on average and Raith Rovers 1.17. The Championship average is 2.50 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 46% of games. Both teams score in 64% of Ayr United's matches and 30% of Raith Rovers's.
What form are Ayr United and Raith Rovers in?
Over the last 5 games Ayr United have a 1-2-2 record (1.00 points per game) and Raith Rovers 1-2-2 (1.00 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Ayr United vs Raith Rovers?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Ayr United vs Raith Rovers: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.