Ayutthaya United vs Ratchaburi: match statistics

Ratchaburi are showing significantly better recent form, winning 4 of their last 5 matches and scoring 13 goals during that run—an average of 2.6 per game. Ayutthaya United, meanwhile, have lost all 5 of their last matches, scoring just 3 goals and conceding as many as 18, which equates to an average of 3.6 goals conceded per match. The visitors combine attacking efficiency with a considerably stronger defence, allowing their opponents only 4 goals over the same period. The difference in goal balance across the last five matches is +9 for Ratchaburi and -15 for the hosts, making an away win the most likely outcome.

Both teams recorded a BTTS result in 3 of their last 5 matches, equating to 60%, which provides a moderately positive signal for goals at both ends. Ayutthaya United are on a very poor defensive run: they have conceded 18 goals in their last five matches, averaging 3.6 per game, while their opponents scored an average of 2.6 goals during that period. Ratchaburi should therefore find the net with a high degree of probability, especially as they generated an average of 2.15 xG per match compared with the 2.64 xG allowed by Ayutthaya United. The main risk to BTTS - Yes is the hosts’ low attacking output, with just 3 goals and 0.6 goals per game in their last five appearances. However, their 1.08 xG, combined with Ratchaburi conceding an average of 1.45 xG, leaves a realistic chance of at least one goal. A Goal/Goal scenario is therefore slightly more likely than a No Goal outcome in which Ayutthaya United fail to respond to the visitors’ attacking advantage.

Ayutthaya United’s last five matches produced an average of as many as 4.2 goals, as the team scored just 0.6 goals but conceded as many as 3.6. Ratchaburi are in significantly better attacking form: they average 2.6 goals per match, while their xG stands at 2.15 compared with 1.08 for the hosts. Particularly important is the matchup between the visitors’ attack and Ayutthaya’s defence, which allowed 18 goals in five matches and an average of 2.64 opposition xG. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of the hosts’ last matches and 60% of Ratchaburi’s fixtures, but Ayutthaya’s limited finishing lowers confidence in the higher goal lines. The strongest pick remains Over 1.5 goals, as even in a one-sided game, the visitors’ very strong attack gives a high probability of at least two goals.

Ratchaburi are showing significantly better current form, having won 4 of their last 5 matches while averaging 2.6 goals scored and conceding just 0.8 per game. Ayutthaya United have lost all 5 of their last fixtures, scoring only 0.6 goals and conceding as many as 3.6 per match. Even before the break, the hosts averaged just 0.2 goals and were trailing at half-time in 60% of their matches, whereas the visitors scored 1.0 goal, conceded 0.2, and held the lead at the break in 40% of their appearances. The difference remains clear after the interval, with Ayutthaya conceding an average of 2.8 goals, while Ratchaburi won the second half in 80% of their last matches. The strongest scenario is therefore for the visitors to lead at half-time and maintain their advantage until the final whistle: HT/FT X/2.