AZ II vs Eindhoven: match statistics

AZ II are 3rd in the table, while Eindhoven sit 7th, indicating the hosts have performed at a higher level so far. In their last five matches, AZ II recorded 2 wins and scored 4 goals, whereas Eindhoven won just once and netted only 2 goals. The visitors’ defence looks particularly vulnerable, having conceded 13 goals in five matches, compared with 10 for AZ II. The hosts have also struggled for consistency, suffering 3 defeats in their last 5 appearances, but their return of 1.2 points per game is clearly superior to Eindhoven’s 0.6. With both teams lacking attacking efficiency, a closely contested match is expected; however, AZ II’s league standing and less leaky defence make them the preferable side.

Recent form clearly lowers the likelihood of both teams scoring: AZ II have averaged 0.8 goals across their last five matches, while Eindhoven have managed just 0.4. BTTS occurred in 0% of AZ II’s matches during this period and in only 20% of Eindhoven’s, which is a strong signal in favour of BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team is expected not to score. Eindhoven have scored just 2 goals in their last five appearances, despite AZ II’s opponents conceding an average of 2.0 goals per match. The hosts do create chances worth an average of 2.03 xG, but their actual tally is only 4 goals, and with Eindhoven having conceded 13, one-sided scoring is more likely than both teams finding the net. BTTS - Yes is therefore not the preferred pick, particularly because the visitors’ attack has shown very low consistency.

The available data from the last five matches point to weak defensive performances on both sides: AZ II conceded an average of 2.0 goals, while Eindhoven conceded as many as 2.6. However, the hosts created considerably more high-quality chances, with an average xG of 2.03 compared to the visitors’ 1.17, which is why their projected goal total is higher. Despite this, actual finishing efficiency was limited, as AZ II scored only 4 goals during this period and Eindhoven just 2, while conceding 13. AZ II’s matches went Over 2.5 goals in 40% of cases, compared with 80% for Eindhoven, but the very low percentage of matches in which both teams scored—0% and 20%, respectively—reduces the risk of an exceptionally high-scoring game. The strongest signal is therefore Under 3.5, as the projected 2.65 goals leaves a clear margin below the four-goal line.

AZ II have won 2 of their last 5 matches, averaging 1.2 points per game, while Eindhoven have recorded just 1 victory and average 0.6 points per match. The hosts held a lead at the break in 40% of these games, whereas Eindhoven never led at half-time and went into the interval trailing in 60% of cases. AZ II’s advantage is also evident in the first halves: they scored an average of 0.6 goals compared with Eindhoven’s 0.2, while the visitors conceded 1.2 goals per game before the break, compared with 0.8 for the hosts. However, both teams struggle for efficiency after the interval, scoring just 0.2 goals per game each. Therefore, the strongest HT/FT scenario is an AZ II lead at half-time followed by a home win at full-time (1/1), although this outcome is not a decisive one.