AZ vs NEC: match statistics
The match promises to be extremely tight, which favors a draw. AZ has a solid home record with 44% wins and only 11% losses at home, but their average goals conceded (1.78) indicates defensive frailties. NEC is in excellent form with four wins in their last five matches and an impressive average of 2.4 goals per away game, though they have failed to keep a single clean sheet on the road. Both teams have an identical goal difference (+4) in their matches, and the xG statistics are very close (AZ 1.93 vs NEC 1.91). AZ's high percentage of draws at home (44%) combined with NEC drawing 30% of their away matches further supports the scenario of a share of the points. I anticipate an open, high-scoring affair ending in a draw.
AZ vs NEC: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
AZ played NEC in Eredivisie (Netherlands). The match was played on 31 January 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
AZ: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. NEC: 3-2-0, 2.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
AZ scores 1.75 and concedes 1.60 goals per match. NEC scores 2.58 and concedes 1.74. League average: 3.25 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: AZ 70%, NEC 79%. Over 2.5: AZ 65%, NEC 84%. League level: BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 62%.
xG, shots and style
NEC has higher xG: 1.82 vs 1.80. AZ: 16.2 shots per match, NEC: 15.4.
Match halves
AZ: half-time lead 35%, second-half goals 0.75. NEC: half-time lead 32%, second-half goals 1.68.
Goals by minute
AZ: 31-45+ (9 goals). NEC: 76-90+ (13 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Eredivisie: 3.25 goals per match, BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 62%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 3.00, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match promises to be extremely tight, which favors a draw. AZ has a solid home record with 44% wins and only 11% losses at home, but their average goals conceded (1.78) indicates defensive frailties. NEC is in excellent form with four wins in their last five matches and an impressive average of 2.4 goals per away game, though they have failed to keep a single clean sheet on the road. Both teams have an identical goal difference (+4) in their matches, and the xG statistics are very close (AZ 1.93 vs NEC 1.91). AZ's high percentage of draws at home (44%) combined with NEC drawing 30% of their away matches further supports the scenario of a share of the points. I anticipate an open, high-scoring affair ending in a draw.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| AZ | NEC | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 37% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
NEC is 57% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - AZ · 2.2 pts / match - NEC
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
NEC is 47% better for: goals scored per match.
1.75 goals / match - AZ · 2.58 goals / match - NEC
AZ is 9% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.6 goals / match - AZ · 1.74 goals / match - NEC
AZ scores in 95% of matches (19 of 20 matches), while NEC keeps a clean sheet in 16% (3 of 19 matches).
NEC scores in 95% of matches (18 of 19 matches), while AZ keeps a clean sheet in 25% (5 of 20 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - AZ
Over / Under - NEC
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
AZ is 14% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.5 pts / match - AZ · 1.32 pts / match - NEC
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
AZ - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 35% of matches and wins 45%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
NEC - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 32% of matches and wins 53%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | -1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 2.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.6 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 2.4 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 0% | 40% |
| No goal | 20% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +4 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (13 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): +8 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
AZ
NEC
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Eredivisie).
Teams vs league
| AZ | Liga | NEC | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.35 | 3.25 | ▲ 4.32 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 70% | 63% | ▲ 79% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 65% | 62% | ▲ 84% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 25% | 20% | ▼ 16% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 75% | 84% | ▲ 95% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 90% | 84% | ▲ 95% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: AZ 0 - 0 - 1 NEC. Average goals 3.00, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of AZ vs NEC?
The Eredivisie match finished AZ 1:3 NEC. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before AZ vs NEC?
AZ score 1.75 goals per game on average and NEC 2.58. The Eredivisie average is 3.25 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 62% of games. Both teams score in 70% of AZ's matches and 79% of NEC's.
What form are AZ and NEC in?
Over the last 5 games AZ have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and NEC 3-2-0 (2.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for AZ vs NEC?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for AZ vs NEC: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.