AZ vs Willem II: match statistics

AZ enter the match as league leaders with a perfect record of 5 wins, a 16:5 goal difference and a run of five consecutive victories. At home, the hosts average 3.5 goals per match, register 16.5 shots and create chances worth 1.87 xG, while Willem II concede as many as 4 goals and 2.47 xG per away game. The visitors sit 16th, have failed to win any of their four matches this season and have already conceded 13 goals, with their last five appearances yielding 14 goals conceded. The difference is also evident in terms of game control: AZ average 53% possession and 6 shots on target at home, whereas Willem II manage just 31% possession and 1 shot on target away from home. AZ’s defence is not flawless, allowing opponents 1.01 xG, but given the hosts’ significant attacking advantage and the visitors’ disastrous away defensive record, a convincing home win is the most likely outcome.

BTTS - Yes looks favorable, as AZ has seen this outcome in 67% of matches and Willem II in as many as 100%, compared with the league average of 78%. Neither team has kept a clean sheet yet, while Willem II has scored in every match and conceded an average of 4.0 goals. AZ has averaged 3.2 goals scored over its last 5 matches, with an xG of 2.31, while the visitors have allowed opponents 2.8 goals and 2.15 xG over the same period. Willem II’s chances of scoring are further supported by the fact that AZ’s defense has allowed opponents 1.90 xG per match throughout the season, despite improving to 1.01 xG across its last five appearances. A Goal/Goal outcome is therefore the most likely, primarily due to the visitors’ very weak defense and the lack of clean sheets on both sides.

AZ are in excellent form, having won their last five matches, and have averaged 3.2 goals scored over their last 5 games, with an xG of 2.31. Over the same period, Willem II conceded as many as 2.8 goals per match, while their average xG allowed stood at 2.15, strongly supporting a high-scoring game for the hosts. The visitors also failed to keep a clean sheet in any of the analysed matches, while both teams had 100% of their matches finishing with at least 2 goals and at least 3 goals in the relevant season data. AZ have recently conceded just 1.0 goal per match, so the main weight of the prediction lies with the hosts; however, Willem II’s average of 1.2 goals scored leaves room for a contribution from the visitors. The strongest signal is Over 1.5, as the projected 3.35 goals clearly exceeds this line, while the historical frequency of at least two goals stands at 100% for both sides.

AZ are showing clearly stronger current form: they have won their last five matches, scoring an average of 3.2 goals and conceding just 1.0, while Willem II have won only 1 of their last 5 games and allowed opponents to score 2.8 goals per match. The hosts also have an advantage in terms of chance quality, with an average xG of 1.31 compared with the 2.47 xG conceded by Willem II. AZ held a lead at the break in 40% of their last five matches, while Willem II were trailing at half-time in 40%, supporting the possibility of the hosts taking the lead before the break. The strongest signal comes from the second half: AZ scored an average of 2.4 goals after half-time in their last five matches, while the visitors conceded 1.8 goals. The HT/FT scenario of AZ leading at half-time and winning after 90 minutes is therefore the most likely, although a draw at half-time followed by a home victory remains a close alternative.