Bahia vs Corinthians: match statistics

Bahia are favorites at home: they average 1.6 goals per home match, while Corinthians average 1.0 goals away, with mean xG of 1.79 versus 1.19. The hosts create markedly more high-quality chances — 6.1 shots on target per home match compared to Corinthians' 3.11 shots on target away — and have a higher efficiency (conversion 10% vs 9%). Defensively Bahia concedes 1.0 goals on average at home, while Corinthians concede 1.22 away; xG against values are 1.21 for Bahia and 1.34 for Corinthians, suggesting slightly better defensive control by the hosts. In the last 5 matches Bahia scored 8 goals and average 1.6 points per match, while Corinthians scored 6 goals and average 1.4 points; additionally Bahia had no goalless home games (0%), whereas Corinthians failed to score in 22% of away matches. Considering the higher xG (1.79 vs 1.19), twice as many shots on target (6.1 vs 3.11), higher home win rate (40% vs 22%) and favorable home goal difference (+6 vs -2), I predict a home victory.

Seasonal BTTS indicators are divergent: Bahia has only 33% of matches with both teams scoring, while Corinthians have 67%, but in the last 5 matches BTTS is 80% (Bahia) and 60% (Corinthians), yielding a last-5 trend suggesting a 70% chance of both teams scoring. Additionally, the last 5 matches show xG 1.98 for Bahia and 1.84 for Corinthians, with xG against 1.22 and 1.21 respectively — both teams generate around 1.8–2.0 xG while conceding ~1.2 xG. In the last 5 matches Bahia scored 8 and conceded 6 goals (avg 1.6/1.2), and Corinthians scored 6 and conceded 7 (1.2/1.4), which confirms both sides find the net. Seasonally Bahia has 44% clean sheets and averages 0.89 goals conceded, and Corinthians 33% clean sheets and 1.22 goals conceded — this partially limits but does not negate the evidence from recent matches. Considering the league BTTS rate of 57% and higher xG and goal output in form, I project BTTS - Yes with a probability of 65% vs 35% for No.

Based on xG I calculate expected goals: Bahia xG_for 1.30 vs xG_against Corinthians 1.34 gives ~1.32 for the home side, and Corinthians xG_for 1.19 vs xG_against Bahia 1.16 gives ~1.18 for the away side, total ≈2.50. Lambda ≈2.50 implies approximate Poisson probabilities: Over 1.5 ≈71%, Over 2.5 ≈46% and Over 3.5 ≈24%, hence my forecasts 72%/46%/24% for lines 1.5/2.5/3.5. The last 5 matches confirm an offensive trend: Bahia recently has 1.98 xG and 1.6 goals scored, Corinthians 1.84 xG and 1.2 goals, and BTTS rates in the last 5 are 80% (Bahia) and 60% (Corinthians). Seasonal data support the Over 1.5 choice: Bahia had 56% of matches with over 1.5 goals, Corinthians 67%, while Over 2.5 shares are only 22% (Bahia) and 44% (Corinthians), explaining lower confidence on the 2.5 line. Based on expected 2.50 goals, higher recent xG and alignment of seasonal indicators, the strongest play signal is Over on the 1.5 line.

The most likely scenario is 1/1 — Bahia leads at half-time and wins ultimately. Bahia has a seasonal advantage in points and offense: they average 1.56 points per match versus Corinthians’ 1.11 and have a higher xG of 1.30 versus 1.19, suggesting the home side creates slightly more high-value chances. In the last five matches Bahia led at the break in 40% of games (2 of 5), while Corinthians did not lead at half-time in any of those five (0 of 5); average points at the break are 1.4 for Bahia versus 0.4 for Corinthians. Additionally, Bahia registers more shots and shots on target (12.11 and 3.78 vs 11.56 and 3.11) and concedes fewer goals by half-time (0.56 vs 1.00), which reduces the visitors’ likelihood of a turnaround, so I assign 24% to 1/1 as the strongest signal; alternatives are X/1 23% and X/X 16% (half-time draws have been seasonally common for Bahia — 67% HT), and a Corinthians win is rated less likely.