Bahia vs Palmeiras: match statistics
Bahia vs Palmeiras: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Bahia played Palmeiras in Serie A (Brazil). The match was played on 5 April 2026. Final score: 1:2.
Current form
Bahia: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Palmeiras: 4-0-1, 2.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Bahia scores 1.50 and concedes 0.88 goals per match. Palmeiras scores 2.11 and concedes 1.00. League average: 2.72 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Bahia 50%, Palmeiras 78%. Over 2.5: Bahia 38%, Palmeiras 78%. League level: BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 49%.
xG, shots and style
Palmeiras has higher xG: 1.43 vs 1.29. Bahia: 11.4 shots per match, Palmeiras: 12.8.
Match halves
Bahia: half-time lead 63%, second-half goals 0.25. Palmeiras: half-time lead 78%, second-half goals 0.78.
Goals by minute
Bahia: 31-45+ (6 goals). Palmeiras: 16-30 (5 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Serie A: 2.72 goals per match, BTTS 59%, Over 2.5 49%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 2-0-0. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
The match looks balanced — Bahia averages 1.75 goals per home game, while Palmeiras scores 1.75 on the road; Palmeiras sit top of the table (1st) with 7 wins this season versus Bahia's 5. Bahia's main advantage is control and chance creation: at home they register 54% possession, on average 13.5 shots of which 6.5 are on target, and an average xG of 1.57, while conceding only 0.5 goals per game and keeping clean sheets in 50% of matches. Palmeiras compensate with finishing and form — 19 goals this season, a shot conversion rate of 18% (versus Bahia's 13%), 4 wins in their last 5 matches and an average of 2.4 points per match over that period. The xG difference (1.57 vs 1.11) and shot volume (13.5 vs 9.5) favour Bahia in quality of chances, but Palmeiras’ higher efficiency means the game could be tight and decided by one or two moments. Considering Bahia's zero percent home loss rate and very low average concession of 0.5 goals, I give a slight edge to the hosts and back a Bahia victory.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Seasonal indicators strongly favor BTTS - Yes: Bahia has BTTS in 80% of matches, Palmeiras in 75%, yielding an average of 77.5% which significantly exceeds the league average of 56%. Additionally, only 20% of Bahia’s matches and 25% of Palmeiras’ matches end in a clean sheet expected, meaning both teams in the majority of fixtures concede or give the opponent a chance to score. xG analysis shows Bahia generates 1.68 xG with xG against 1.30, while Palmeiras posts 1.11 xG with xG against 1.57, suggesting both sides have opportunities to score and vulnerability to concede (Palmeiras also has a higher conversion rate at 18%). Shot metrics and form confirm this: Bahia averages 15.4 shots and 5.6 on target, Palmeiras 9.5 and 4.5, and in the last 5 matches Bahia scored 8 and conceded 5, while Palmeiras scored 7 and conceded 4. Therefore I tip BTTS - Yes (78%).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
Averaging the xG model and seasonal goals-per-game yields expected goals of 2.02 for Bahia and 1.48 for Palmeiras, totaling 3.50 goals. xG computed as the mean of xg_for and xg_against gives 1.63 for Bahia (1.68 and 1.57) and 1.21 for Palmeiras (1.11 and 1.30), while seasonal goals-per-game are 2.4 and 1.75 respectively; the average of these methods is taken as the baseline. Bahia averages 15.4 shots with 5.6 on target and a 16% conversion rate, Palmeiras 9.5 shots with 4.5 on target and an 18% conversion, indicating both teams’ ability to create chances. Additionally both sides show high market indicators: Over 2.5 at 80% (Bahia) and 75% (Palmeiras) and BTTS 80% and 75%, which supports a high-scoring scenario; therefore estimated probabilities are over1.5 ≈86%, over2.5 ≈68%, over3.5 ≈46% and the recommended line to back is Over 2.5 as the strongest signal from the data.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Bahia led at the break in 5 out of 5 home matches (100%), averaging 1.6 goals by half-time and conceding only 0.2, which strongly supports a home lead after 45 minutes. Over full matches Bahia averages 2.4 goals scored and 0.8 conceded at home, while Palmeiras averages 1.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded away; hosts earn an average of 3.0 points per home match versus 1.75 points per away match for the visitors. Bahia generates more high-quality chances (xG 1.68 versus 1.11 for Palmeiras) and registers significantly more shots (15.4 vs 9.5), suggesting an offensive advantage and a higher probability of maintaining the lead. Although Palmeiras has won 4 of the last 5 matches (80%) and both teams often score in games (80% of Bahia’s matches and 75% of Palmeiras’s), the strongest signal from the data is Bahia leading at half-time and the hosts winning the match, therefore I select 1/1 (HT/FT: home/home).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Bahia | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 43% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.31 | 0.41 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Palmeiras is 20% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - Bahia · 2.4 pts / match - Palmeiras
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Palmeiras is 41% better for: goals scored per match.
1.5 goals / match - Bahia · 2.11 goals / match - Palmeiras
Bahia is 14% better for: goals conceded per match.
0.88 goals / match - Bahia · 1 goals / match - Palmeiras
Bahia scores in 100% of matches (8 of 8 matches), while Palmeiras keeps a clean sheet in 22% (2 of 9 matches).
Palmeiras scores in 100% of matches (9 of 9 matches), while Bahia keeps a clean sheet in 50% (4 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Bahia
Over / Under - Palmeiras
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Palmeiras is 20% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
2.13 pts / match - Bahia · 2.56 pts / match - Palmeiras
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Bahia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 63% of matches and wins 63%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Palmeiras - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 78% of matches and wins 78%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.3 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.8 | 0.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 40% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 0% | 80% |
| Goal difference | +5 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 3.00 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 0% | 60% |
| Goal difference | +5 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (6 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): +1 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (5 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Bahia
Palmeiras
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Serie A).
Teams vs league
| Bahia | Liga | Palmeiras | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.38 | 2.72 | ▲ 3.11 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 59% | ▲ 78% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 38% | 49% | ▲ 78% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 50% | 22% | • 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 100% | 78% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 38% | 75% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Bahia 2 - 0 - 0 Palmeiras. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Bahia vs Palmeiras?
The Serie A match finished Bahia 1:2 Palmeiras. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Bahia and Palmeiras?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Bahia won 2, Palmeiras won 0 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 1.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 0% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Bahia vs Palmeiras?
Bahia score 1.50 goals per game on average and Palmeiras 2.11. The Serie A average is 2.72 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 49% of games. Both teams score in 50% of Bahia's matches and 78% of Palmeiras's.
What form are Bahia and Palmeiras in?
Over the last 5 games Bahia have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Palmeiras 4-0-1 (2.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Bahia vs Palmeiras?
The statistical background for Bahia vs Palmeiras — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.