Bala Town vs Caernarfon Town: match statistics
Caernarfon Town clearly outperforms Bala Town in terms of form and efficiency. The visitors sit 5th in the table boasting a positive away goal difference (+6), while the hosts languish in 9th place with a negative home record (-4). Caernarfon averages 2 goals per away game with an 18% shot conversion rate—double the hosts' 10%. Bala Town has failed to score in 40% of their home fixtures and holds a mere 20% home win rate. Recent form also favors the visitors, averaging 1.4 points per game in their last 5 outings compared to just 0.8 for the hosts. Superior average possession (50% vs 40%) and better xG stats (1.41 vs 1.1) further validate Caernarfon Town's advantage, making their victory the most probable outcome.
Bala Town vs Caernarfon Town: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Bala Town played Caernarfon Town in Welsh Premier League (Wales). The match was played on 31 December 2025. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Bala Town: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Caernarfon Town: 0-3-2, 0.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
Bala Town scores 0.74 and concedes 1.42 goals per match. Caernarfon Town scores 2.05 and concedes 1.50. League average: 3.09 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Bala Town 32%, Caernarfon Town 75%. Over 2.5: Bala Town 32%, Caernarfon Town 65%. League level: BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 58%.
xG, shots and style
Caernarfon Town has higher xG: 1.56 vs 1.11. Bala Town: 8.2 shots per match, Caernarfon Town: 12.4.
Match halves
Bala Town: half-time lead 21%, second-half goals 0.32. Caernarfon Town: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 1.45.
Goals by minute
Bala Town: 0-15 (4 goals). Caernarfon Town: 61-75 (11 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Welsh Premier League: 3.09 goals per match, BTTS 51%, Over 2.5 58%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Caernarfon Town clearly outperforms Bala Town in terms of form and efficiency. The visitors sit 5th in the table boasting a positive away goal difference (+6), while the hosts languish in 9th place with a negative home record (-4). Caernarfon averages 2 goals per away game with an 18% shot conversion rate—double the hosts' 10%. Bala Town has failed to score in 40% of their home fixtures and holds a mere 20% home win rate. Recent form also favors the visitors, averaging 1.4 points per game in their last 5 outings compared to just 0.8 for the hosts. Superior average possession (50% vs 40%) and better xG stats (1.41 vs 1.1) further validate Caernarfon Town's advantage, making their victory the most probable outcome.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Bala Town | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 43% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.14 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.22 | 0.39 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Bala Town is 33% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Bala Town · 0.6 pts / match - Caernarfon Town
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Caernarfon Town is 177% better for: goals scored per match.
0.74 goals / match - Bala Town · 2.05 goals / match - Caernarfon Town
Bala Town is 6% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.42 goals / match - Bala Town · 1.5 goals / match - Caernarfon Town
Bala Town scores in 53% of matches (10 of 19 matches), while Caernarfon Town keeps a clean sheet in 10% (2 of 20 matches).
Caernarfon Town scores in 85% of matches (17 of 20 matches), while Bala Town keeps a clean sheet in 32% (6 of 19 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Bala Town
Over / Under - Caernarfon Town
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Caernarfon Town is 5% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.05 pts / match - Bala Town · 1.1 pts / match - Caernarfon Town
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Bala Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 21% of matches and wins 26%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Caernarfon Town - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 0.80 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (4 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (11 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Bala Town
Caernarfon Town
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Welsh Premier League).
Teams vs league
| Bala Town | Liga | Caernarfon Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.16 | 3.09 | ▲ 3.55 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 32% | 51% | ▲ 75% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 32% | 58% | ▲ 65% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 32% | 29% | ▼ 10% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 68% | 77% | ▼ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 58% | 74% | ▲ 95% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Bala Town 0 - 0 - 1 Caernarfon Town. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Bala Town vs Caernarfon Town?
The Welsh Premier League match finished Bala Town 0:1 Caernarfon Town. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Bala Town vs Caernarfon Town?
Bala Town score 0.74 goals per game on average and Caernarfon Town 2.05. The Welsh Premier League average is 3.09 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 58% of games. Both teams score in 32% of Bala Town's matches and 75% of Caernarfon Town's.
What form are Bala Town and Caernarfon Town in?
Over the last 5 games Bala Town have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Caernarfon Town 0-3-2 (0.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Bala Town vs Caernarfon Town?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for Bala Town vs Caernarfon Town: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.