Baladiyyat Al Mehalla vs Kahraba Ismailia: match statistics

Baladiyyat Al Mehalla have been in clearly weaker overall form, averaging just 0.8 points per game across their last five matches compared with Kahraba Ismailia’s 1.6. However, they remain unbeaten at home, with one win and one draw. The hosts have yet to concede a goal in home matches, while their average xG against stands at just 0.64, which could limit the visitors to only a few high-quality chances. At the same time, Baladiyyat create significantly more opportunities at home, averaging 13 shots and 6 on target with an xG of 1.95, whereas Kahraba record an away xG of 1.27 and concede an average of 1.5 goals. The visitors sit higher in the table, in 6th place compared with 11th, and have scored 8 goals in their last five matches, but they have won neither of their two away games and have failed to keep a clean sheet. The hosts’ low conversion rate, with an average of 0.5 goals scored at home, increases the likelihood of a draw. Nevertheless, their advantage in chance creation and highly resilient home defence slightly favour a home win.

The stronger signal is BTTS - No, as Baladiyyat Al Mehalla have kept a clean sheet in 100% of their home matches so far, conceding an average of 0.0 goals. Kahraba Ismailia score only 0.5 goals per away match on average and failed to score in 50% of those fixtures. The hosts have a clear offensive advantage: they generate an average of 2.24 xG and register 7.5 shots on target, compared with 1.27 xG and 3.5 shots on target for the visitors. The hosts’ profile also supports a one-sided result, as their home matches recorded 0% BTTS, with all of them finishing Over 2.5 Goals without both teams scoring. The last five matches for both teams produced BTTS in 40% of cases each, which is not enough to offset the visitors’ very poor away finishing against the hosts’ solid defence.

The hosts’ last five matches produced an average of just 0.6 goals scored, while their average xG stood at 0.95, clearly tempering the picture suggested by their high season-long home average. Kahraba Ismailia are in better attacking form, averaging 1.6 goals and 1.59 xG over their last five matches, but the hosts conceded just 1.0 goal per game during this period. In the teams’ last five matches, Over 2.5 goals landed in only 40% of cases, while the league-wide average is a low 2.0 goals per match. Seasonally, as many as 70% of league matches have seen one side keep a clean sheet, further limiting the prospects of an open, high-scoring game. The projected total of 2.00 goals gives a clear edge to the Under 3.5 goals bet, as it takes at least four goals for it to lose.

The strongest option is a draw at half-time followed by a Kahraba Ismailia win at full-time, as the visitors have not lost the first half in any of their last five matches and have been level at the break in 60% of them. During this period, Baladiyyat Al Mehalla scored just 0.2 goals before half-time and went into the interval trailing in 40% of their matches, which supports a cautious opening without a home lead. After the break, Kahraba have averaged 1.0 goal over their last five matches, with goals scored in the second half in all five of those fixtures; the hosts have managed just 0.4 goals. Current form also clearly favours the visitors: they score 1.6 goals per match, average 1.6 points per game and have a 40% win rate, while Baladiyyat record 0.6 goals, 0.8 points and a 60% loss rate. The hosts’ strong home numbers—two wins, three goals scored and none conceded—reduce confidence in the selection, but this is a very small sample compared with the visitors’ clearly superior current form.