Bali United vs Adhyaksa: match statistics

Bali United began the season with a 2:1 home win and average 15 shots and 5 shots on target per match on their own turf. The hosts also generate 1.82 xG, while Adhyaksa failed to score and conceded as many as 4 goals in their only away game. Bali United have won 3 of their last 5 matches, scoring 9 goals during that period, whereas the visitors have suffered 2 defeats and allowed their opponents to score 8 times. Adhyaksa have lost 100% of their away matches so far, failing to register a single shot on target, which, combined with the hosts’ superiority in chance creation, clearly points to a home win (1). Bali United’s defence is not flawless, conceding an average of 1 goal at home, but the visitors’ offensive weakness should limit their chances of earning a point.

The strongest signal for BTTS - No comes from Adhyaksa’s only match so far: the team failed to score and lost 0:4, while both of this team’s matches featuring at least three goals ended with no goals scored by both sides. Bali United scored 2 goals and conceded 1 in their only league match this season, but have a 0% BTTS rate, so the current league sample does not yet confirm regular Goal/Goal outcomes. The form across the last five matches is more balanced, with Bali averaging 1.8 goals scored and 1.4 conceded, while Adhyaksa averages 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded. However, Adhyaksa’s xG over this period stands at just 0.90, clearly below Bali’s 1.63, increasing the risk that the visitors will once again fail to convert their chances. BTTS remains possible given Bali’s 60% BTTS rate in their last five matches, but Adhyaksa’s poor attacking efficiency this season slightly favors a scenario in which at least one team fails to score.

Bali United’s last five matches produced an average of 3.2 goals, with the team scoring 1.8 and conceding 1.4 goals per game. Adhyaksa’s matches were only slightly more subdued, averaging 3.0 goals, with a record of 1.4 scored and 1.6 conceded. The 2.5 line was exceeded in 60% of the last five matches for both teams, supporting the scenario of at least three goals, but without providing as strong a signal as the lower line. During this period, Bali United created chances worth 1.63 xG per match, clearly more than Adhyaksa’s 0.90 xG, while the visitors conceded an average of 1.6 goals. Over 1.5 goals offers the greatest advantage, as the projected 2.70 goals leaves a solid margin above this line, even with less efficient finishing.

The strongest signal points to Bali United leading at the break: in their last five matches, they were ahead at half-time in 80% of cases, averaging 1.0 goals scored and only 0.2 conceded. Over the same period, Adhyaksa were trailing at half-time in 60% of matches, scoring just 0.4 goals before the break while conceding 1.2. The hosts have won three of their last five matches and average 1.8 goals per game, compared with 1.4 for the visitors, who concede an average of 1.6. After the break, however, Adhyaksa look more solid, averaging 1.0 goals scored and 0.4 conceded, so scenarios in which the hosts lead but the match ends in a draw or a turnaround are also relevant. Despite this caveat, Bali United’s first-half advantage and the visitors’ weaker defence indicate that the HT/FT 1/1 outcome remains the most likely.