Bali United vs Persijap: match statistics

Bali United are the favourites: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 11 goals, while Persijap have failed to win during that period and have scored just once. At home, the hosts have won both matches played so far, averaging 3 goals per game, while Persijap failed to score and conceded 2 goals in their only away match. Bali’s edge in chance creation is reflected in their average home xG of 1.89 compared with Persijap’s 0.87 away from home; the hosts also average 6.5 shots on target, against 2 for the visitors. Bali’s defence concedes an average of one goal at home, while the visitors allow opponents chances worth an average xG of 1.81, further boosting the hosts’ chances of winning. Persijap’s away sample is small, so despite Bali’s clear advantage, a draw cannot be ruled out entirely.

The strongest indication against both teams scoring is Persijap’s attack: the team has scored just 1 goal in its last 5 matches, with a BTTS rate of 20%. Away from home, the visitors average 0 goals and 2 shots on target per match, while Bali United have conceded an average of 0.8 goals across their last 5 games. The hosts are more likely to score, having averaged 2.2 goals over the same period, while Persijap have conceded 1.0 goal per match. Although the visitors’ away xG of 0.87 suggests they could create chances, their poor finishing makes it more likely that at least one team will fail to score (BTTS - No).

The strongest signal is for Under 3.5 goals: across the available matches for both teams, the total never reached 4 goals. Persijap have scored an average of just 0.2 goals per match recently, while Bali United have averaged 2.2, so the larger share of the expected goals falls to the hosts. Across their last five matches, the average total goals stood at 3.0 for Bali United and 1.2 for Persijap, highlighting the difference between their profiles. Although Bali United went Over 2.5 goals in 60% of those matches, Persijap reached that mark in just 20%, and their average xG is 1.14 compared with 1.37 for the hosts. An estimated 2.35 total goals therefore points to Under 3.5, although Bali United’s strong scoring form means three goals cannot be ruled out.

Bali United led at the break in 4 of their last 5 matches and won 4 of them, while Persijap recorded no wins over the same period. Across this run, the hosts averaged 1.2 goals before half-time and did not concede in the first half, whereas the visitors scored just 0.2 first-half goals per match. Bali United’s advantage in chance creation is supported by an xG of 1.36 compared with Persijap’s 0.87, as well as an average of 4.5 shots on target against 2.0. After the break, the hosts averaged 1.0 goal across their last five matches, while the visitors failed to score in the second half, which points to Bali United holding on to their lead. A half-time draw remains a notable alternative, having occurred in 4 of Persijap’s last 5 matches, but Bali United’s stronger starts make a home lead at half-time followed by a home win at full-time the most likely scenario (HT/FT 1/1).