Ballymena United vs Portadown: match statistics

I back the home win: Ballymena in their last 5 matches has 2 wins and 3 draws with 8 goals scored, averaging 1.8 points per match, whereas Portadown in their last 5 has 0 wins, 3 draws and 2 losses with only 3 goals and 0.6 points per match. The home defense is statistically superior — Ballymena concedes 1.28 goals per home match, while Portadown concedes 2.06 on the road; seasonally the visitors have conceded 63 goals versus 53 for the home side. In chance creation Ballymena hold a slight edge: average xG for the home side at home is 1.16 versus 1.05 xG for the visitors away, and the hosts average 9.12 shots and 3.53 on target per match vs 8.33 and 3.06 for Portadown, with the same shot conversion of 13%. Additionally the hosts have 28% of home matches with a clean sheet and failed to score in 28% of games, while the visitors have only 6% clean sheets away and failed to score in 39% of away matches, which enhances Ballymena’s defensive advantage. Portadown’s away goal difference is -17 versus -1 for the hosts and visitors have a 67% away loss rate compared to 33% home loss rate, therefore I assess the probabilities as 65% for a home win, 22% for a draw and 13% for an away win.

The key signal comes from clean sheets: Portadown have only 6% of matches without conceding, while Ballymena have 28%, meaning the hosts score in 94% of games (100-6) and the visitors in 72% (100-28); assuming independence this yields roughly a 68% chance of BTTS (0.94×0.72≈0.68). Recent form confirms this: in their last 5 matches Ballymena had BTTS in 80% of games and Portadown in 60%, so both teams have been exchanging goals more frequently than season averages suggest. Goals and xG data support this picture: Portadown concede on average 2.06 goals per match this season with xG against 1.60, while Ballymena create xG of 1.33 and have averaged 1.6 goals in the last 5 matches, increasing the likelihood that the visitors will concede at least once. Season BTTS rates are 44% for Ballymena and 56% for Portadown against a league average of 51%, so seasonal signals are mixed, but Portadown’s very low clean sheet rate and the hosts’ recent form dominate. Consequently I pick BTTS - Yes with probability 68% and No 32%.

In the season, 72% of Ballymena’s matches and 89% of Portadown’s matches finished over 1.5 goals, while the league average is 2.88 goals per game, indicating an edge for the over options. Calculated xG yield about 1.47 goals for the home side (attacking xG 1.33 vs away defensive xG 1.60) and about 1.34 goals for the visitors (attacking xG 1.05 vs home defensive xG 1.62), total ≈2.81 goals. Portadown concedes on average 2.06 goals per game and has 78% of season fixtures over 2.5 goals, which increases the likelihood of multiple goals; Ballymena at home has 39% of matches over 2.5, but 72% over 1.5. Average shots on target are 3.89 for the home side versus 3.06 for the visitors, with conversion rates of 11% and 13%, suggesting a realistic chance of converting chances into goals. The strongest and safest signal from the data is therefore over 1.5 (recommended 'over' at the 1.5 line).

The first half is likely to be low-scoring: the home side averages 0.44 goals by half-time and the visitors 0.39, with a clean sheet at the break occurring in 61% of Ballymena’s matches and 56% of Portadown’s, which resulted in the home side leading at the break in 6 of 18 matches (33%). Second halves produce more decisive action — in the last five matches the average goals in second halves are 1.8 for the home team and 1.0 for the away team, and the proportion of matches with at least one goal after the break is 72% for the home side and 100% for the visitors. Ballymena holds the pre-match edge: they win 39% of home fixtures versus Portadown’s 22% away win rate, season points are 1.33 vs 0.78, and the home xG is 1.33 compared to the visitors’ 1.05, suggesting greater chance-creation. Additionally, in the last five matches the home team has shown superior second-half form (an average of 2.0 points gained in second halves versus 0.2 for the visitors), so the most probable scenario is a draw at half-time and a Ballymena victory at full-time (HT/FT: X/1).