Bałtyk Koszalin vs Kalisz: match statistics

Kalisz remain unbeaten this season, recording 2 wins and a draw with a 4:2 goal difference, while Bałtyk Koszalin have lost both of their home matches so far. The hosts score just 0.5 goals per game at home and have failed to find the net in 50% of their matches, with an average xG of only 0.78. Bałtyk’s defence looks particularly vulnerable: they concede an average of 2.5 goals per home game, allow opponents an xG of 2.04 and are yet to keep a clean sheet. Away from home, Kalisz score an average of 1.5 goals, concede 1 and have recorded 50% wins and 50% draws, indicating greater stability on the road. Recent form also favours the visitors, who have won 3 of their last 5 matches and averaged 2 points per game, compared with Bałtyk’s 1.4 points.

The BTTS signal is moderately positive, as Bałtyk recorded both teams scoring in 80% of their last 5 matches, compared with 40% for Kalisz. The hosts averaged 2.4 goals scored during this period but also conceded 1.6, while their opponents posted a high xG of 2.05. Kalisz averaged 1.2 goals per match, and despite Bałtyk’s season average of 0.0 goals conceded, their defence has recently allowed opponents numerous chances. The league trend also supports the “Yes” selection, with BTTS occurring in 74% of matches at an average of 3.59 goals, although Kalisz’s low xG over their last five games, at 0.72, limits confidence in the prediction.

Bałtyk Koszalin’s last five matches produced an average of 4.0 goals, with the team scoring 2.4 and conceding 1.6 per game. Over the same period, Kalisz recorded a total average of 2.2 goals per match, while its average xG stood at 0.72, compared with 1.40 xG allowed to opponents. At least 3 goals were scored in 80% of Bałtyk’s last five matches, while the league average of 3.59 goals and 63% of matches finishing Over 2.5 further support an open game script. Although the hosts’ limited season data is defensively favorable, their opponents created chances worth 1.83 xG against them, making the 1.5-goal line clearly the most likely to succeed.

In the current home data, Bałtyk have won 100% of their matches, scoring an average of 1.0 goals and conceding none, while Kalisz have won 50% of their away matches and drawn the remaining 50%. The strongest first-half signal is that the hosts were leading at the break in their only home fixture, scoring an average of 1.0 goals and keeping a clean sheet, while Kalisz failed to score before half-time in their away appearances. The broader form also favours Bałtyk at the start: in their last five matches, they were ahead after 45 minutes in 50% of games, compared with 40% for Kalisz, who were trailing at half-time in as many as 40% of matches. After the break, the risk of an away turnaround remains significant, as Kalisz have scored an average of 1.5 goals; however, Bałtyk have home advantage and are averaging 3.0 points per game this season. The scenario in which the hosts lead at half-time and go on to maintain their winning result is therefore the most likely, although the limited sample size reduces confidence.