Bałtyk Koszalin vs Unia Swarzędz: match statistics

Unia Swarzędz hold an attacking edge away from home, averaging 1.83 goals from 1.71 xG, while Bałtyk Koszalin average 1.17 goals and 1.26 xG at home. The visitors also average 15.67 shots, including 5.67 on target, compared with the hosts’ 11.4 shots and 3 on target, giving them a greater chance of creating dangerous opportunities. Over their last five matches, both teams have recorded two wins, one draw and two defeats, but Unia scored 14 goals to Bałtyk’s 9. The visitors’ defence remains vulnerable to mistakes, however, conceding an average of 1.83 goals away from home, compared with Bałtyk’s 1.5 goals conceded at home. Unia’s greater attacking strength points to an away win, although the hosts’ home record and the visitors’ defensive frailties leave a genuine possibility of a different outcome.

In their last 5 matches, both teams scored in 80% of Bałtyk’s games and 60% of Unia’s, which supports a BTTS - Yes pick. During this period, the hosts averaged 1.8 goals scored and the visitors 2.8, while both teams conceded an average of 1.6 goals per match. Their season averages also point to scoring chances at both ends: Bałtyk score 1.8 goals per match and Unia 1.83, while conceding an average of 1.6 and 1.83 goals respectively. However, caution is warranted, as BTTS has landed in only 40% of Bałtyk’s matches and 50% of Unia’s this season, and the teams failed to score in 40% and 33% of their matches respectively. Despite these caveats, the current form of both attacks, coupled with their regular goals conceded, gives a moderate edge to the scenario in which both teams find the net.

Both teams average around 1.8 goals scored per match this season, while conceding 1.6 and 1.83 respectively, pointing to scoring potential at both ends. The hosts’ last five matches averaged 3.4 goals, compared with 4.4 in the visitors’ games; at least three goals were scored in 80% and 60% of those matches, respectively. The league average of 3.64 goals also supports a higher goal total, although season-long rates of matches with at least four goals—40% and 50%—limit confidence in the Over 3.5 line. The strongest signal is for Over 1.5: this line has been cleared in 80% of Bałtyk’s matches and 83% of Unia’s, making it a safer choice than Over 2.5.

In their last five matches, Unia led at the break three times, while Bałtyk went into half-time level on three occasions, making an early away lead a realistic, though not certain, possibility. Unia have recently averaged 2.8 goals per match compared with Bałtyk’s 1.8, and won 50% of matches over the full period covered by the data, compared with 20% for the hosts. The visitors also averaged 1.6 goals after half-time in their last five matches, increasing the likelihood that they would hold on to any lead. Bałtyk do create chances, however, with an average xG of 1.94 compared with Unia’s 1.71. So while the indicators point towards the visitors leading at the break and winning at full-time, this HT/FT scenario has only a moderate edge over the alternatives.