Bari 1908 vs Cavese: match statistics

Bari 1908 remain unbeaten in their last five matches, winning 3 and drawing 2, while Cavese have recorded just 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat. The hosts have scored 6 goals during this period, 2 more than their opponents, while conceding only 2 compared to Cavese’s 5. Bari’s average of 2.2 points per game across their last five appearances is well above Cavese’s 1.2, confirming the difference in current consistency. Cavese draw frequently, so a closely fought match remains a realistic scenario; however, Bari’s stronger defensive record and greater attacking efficiency support a home win.

The strongest signal comes from Bari’s defensive record: they have conceded just 2 goals in their last 5 matches, averaging 0.4 per game, while BTTS occurred in only 20% of those fixtures. Cavese scored just 4 goals during this period, averaging 0.8 goals per match, which limits their chances of breaking through the hosts’ solid defence. Bari have scored more frequently, averaging 1.2 goals compared with Cavese’s 0.8, so a home win with Cavese failing to score appears more likely than a goalless draw. Although BTTS occurred in 60% of Cavese’s last five matches, their xG of 1.14 does not provide a clear advantage over the low number of goals actually scored. A BTTS - Yes pick does not cover scenarios in which only Bari score, and that is precisely the most likely outcome here.

Seasonal data is unavailable, so the assessment is based on the last five matches played by both teams. During this period, Bari averaged 1.2 goals scored and conceded just 0.4, resulting in only 8 total goals across five games. Cavese averaged 0.8 goals scored and 1.0 conceded, with none of their last five matches producing at least 3 goals. Although Cavese’s average xG stands at 1.14, Bari allowed opponents to score just 0.4 actual goals per match, meaning the visitors’ attacking potential may not be fully realized. The projected total of 1.75 goals strongly supports Under 3.5, as this bet would only lose if at least 4 goals were scored—something the teams’ recent form does not suggest.

Bari are in clearly better form: they have collected 11 points from their last five matches, winning three and suffering no defeats, while Cavese have won just one game and collected six points. The hosts were leading at the break in 60% of those matches, scoring an average of 0.8 goals before half-time, whereas Cavese opened the scoring before the break in only 20% of their games and averaged 0.2 goals. Bari’s defence conceded just 0.4 goals per match across their last five outings, including 0.2 after half-time, which limits the visitors’ chances of completing a turnaround. Bari also won or drew the second half in 100% of their recent matches, while Cavese conceded an average of 0.8 goals after the break. The strongest scenario is therefore for the hosts to lead at half-time and maintain their advantage until the final whistle.