Barletta vs Bari 1908: match statistics

Bari 1908 are enjoying a clearly stronger run of form: they have recorded 3 wins and 2 draws in their last five matches, remaining unbeaten, while Barletta have won just 1 match, drawn two and suffered 2 defeats. The visitors have scored 7 goals during this period, exactly the same as the hosts, but their defence has conceded only 2 goals compared with Barletta’s 9. The difference in average points over the last five matches—2.2 for Bari versus 1.0 for Barletta—confirms the visitors’ greater consistency. Bari also opened the current campaign with a 3:0 win, whereas Barletta drew 3:3, further highlighting the hosts’ problems in protecting their own goal. With their attacking efficiency broadly comparable, Bari’s significantly more reliable defence should tilt the balance in the visitors’ favour.

The BTTS pick does not have a clear edge, as Bari 1908 have conceded an average of just 0.4 goals in their last 5 matches, while their opponents failed to score in 3 of those 5 games. Barletta do have a high BTTS rate of 80% across their last five matches, but their average of 1.4 goals scored is lower than the visitors’ solid defensive form. Bari have also averaged 1.4 goals recently, while Barletta have conceded 1.8 goals per match, making a scenario with an away goal and a possible home clean sheet the most realistic outcome. Barletta’s xG from their last five matches stands at 1.88, but Bari allowed opponents just 1.12 xG, which limits confidence in a home goal. Although the league-wide BTTS average is as high as 86%, Bari’s clearly stronger defence and the visitors’ low 20% BTTS rate in their last five matches marginally support BTTS - No, meaning that at least one team will fail to score.

In their last five matches, Barletta have averaged 1.4 goals scored and 1.8 conceded, resulting in as many as 3.2 total goals per game. Their average xG over this period stands at 1.88, while Bari allow opponents 1.70 xG, giving the hosts a solid foundation to score at least once. Bari are considerably more stable defensively in terms of results, conceding just 0.4 goals per match across their last five outings, but Barletta are generating significantly more high-quality chances than their finishing suggests. The visitors average 1.12 xG, compared with 1.02 xG conceded by Barletta, keeping their projected goal tally around one. The strongest selection is Over 1.5 goals, as the modelled total of 2.65 goals and the attacking metrics of both teams give a 74% chance of at least two goals, while the 2.5 line remains almost perfectly balanced.

Recent form clearly favors Bari 1908: the visitors won 60% of their last five matches and did not lose any, while Barletta won only 20% and suffered defeats in 40%. Bari held the lead at the break in 60% of those matches, compared with 25% for the hosts, and conceded an average of just 0.2 goals before half-time, versus 0.75 for Barletta. Across their last five appearances, the visitors conceded only 0.4 goals per match, while the hosts conceded as many as 1.8, increasing Bari’s chances of holding on to any early lead. Barletta scored an average of 1.4 goals, but their defence allowed 1.0 goal after the break, making a Bari lead at half-time followed by a full-time victory the most likely scenario.