Basel vs Lugano: match statistics
Statistical analysis indicates a very balanced matchup between both teams, favoring a draw. Basel is showing weaker form in their last five matches (0.6 PPG, a streak of four defeats), while Lugano is in significantly better shape (1.8 PPG, unbeaten in their last five games with two clean sheets and three draws). The hosts have the home advantage with a 42% win rate at home and a better xG (2.07 vs 1.23), however their recent form raises serious concerns. Lugano demonstrates defensive solidity (only 6 goals conceded in the last 5 matches) and offensive efficiency (12 goals in the same period). Considering the similar possession statistics (58% vs 59%), comparable away and home win rates (42% for both), and the contrast between Basel's poor current form and Lugano's good run, the most probable outcome appears to be a draw, with a slight edge for the hosts due to the home field advantage.
Basel vs Lugano: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Basel played Lugano in Super League (Switzerland). The match was played on 15 February 2026. Final score: 1:1.
Current form
Basel: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match. Lugano: 2-3-0, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Basel scores 1.50 and concedes 1.21 goals per match. Lugano scores 1.67 and concedes 1.21. League average: 3.31 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Basel 63%, Lugano 63%. Over 2.5: Basel 58%, Lugano 50%. League level: BTTS 67%, Over 2.5 66%.
xG, shots and style
Basel has higher xG: 1.91 vs 1.49. Basel: 17.4 shots per match, Lugano: 13.4.
Match halves
Basel: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.79. Lugano: half-time lead 42%, second-half goals 0.79.
Goals by minute
Basel: 31-45+ (8 goals). Lugano: 61-75 (9 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Super League: 3.31 goals per match, BTTS 67%, Over 2.5 66%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 2 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-2. Average goals 2.50, BTTS 50%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis indicates a very balanced matchup between both teams, favoring a draw. Basel is showing weaker form in their last five matches (0.6 PPG, a streak of four defeats), while Lugano is in significantly better shape (1.8 PPG, unbeaten in their last five games with two clean sheets and three draws). The hosts have the home advantage with a 42% win rate at home and a better xG (2.07 vs 1.23), however their recent form raises serious concerns. Lugano demonstrates defensive solidity (only 6 goals conceded in the last 5 matches) and offensive efficiency (12 goals in the same period). Considering the similar possession statistics (58% vs 59%), comparable away and home win rates (42% for both), and the contrast between Basel's poor current form and Lugano's good run, the most probable outcome appears to be a draw, with a slight edge for the hosts due to the home field advantage.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Basel | Lugano | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 36% | 35% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.24 | 0.35 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Lugano is 29% better for: last-5 form.
1.4 pts / match - Basel · 1.8 pts / match - Lugano
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Lugano is 11% better for: goals scored per match.
1.5 goals / match - Basel · 1.67 goals / match - Lugano
Basel scores in 79% of matches (19 of 24 matches), while Lugano keeps a clean sheet in 29% (7 of 24 matches).
Lugano scores in 88% of matches (21 of 24 matches), while Basel keeps a clean sheet in 29% (7 of 24 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Basel
Over / Under - Lugano
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Lugano is 17% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.46 pts / match - Basel · 1.71 pts / match - Lugano
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Basel - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 46%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Lugano - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 42% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.4 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 20% | 20% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.4 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 0% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +6 | 0 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +5 - wins late phases.
Most dangerous in minutes 61-75 (9 goals). Concedes most in 61-75 (9). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Basel
Lugano
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Super League).
Teams vs league
| Basel | Liga | Lugano | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.71 | 3.31 | ▼ 2.88 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 63% | 67% | ▼ 63% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 58% | 66% | ▼ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 29% | 19% | ▲ 29% |
| Goal before half-time | ▲ 79% | 76% | ▼ 67% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 75% | 82% | ▲ 88% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (2): Basel 0 - 0 - 2 Lugano. Average goals 2.50, both teams scored in 50% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Basel vs Lugano?
The Super League match finished Basel 1:1 Lugano. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Basel and Lugano?
In the last 2 head-to-head matches Basel won 0, Lugano won 2 and 0 ended level. These games averaged 2.50 goals, with both teams scoring in 50% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Basel vs Lugano?
Basel score 1.50 goals per game on average and Lugano 1.67. The Super League average is 3.31 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 66% of games. Both teams score in 63% of Basel's matches and 63% of Lugano's.
What form are Basel and Lugano in?
Over the last 5 games Basel have a 2-1-2 record (1.40 points per game) and Lugano 2-3-0 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Basel vs Lugano?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.