Bastia vs Amiens SC: match statistics

Bastia sit higher in the table, but their home form is concerning: they have lost both matches so far, scoring an average of 1 goal and conceding as many as 2.5 per game. Amiens are also yet to win away from home, but they have drawn one of their two matches and maintain a significantly better defensive structure, conceding an average of just 0.5 goals. However, the visitors’ main issue is their attack: they have failed to score in away matches, have not registered a shot on target, and their average xG is just 0.73. Bastia have scored 6 goals in their last five matches compared with Amiens’ 4, but they have conceded 7 during that period, while their opponents have conceded just 3. The clash between the hosts’ weak defence and the visitors’ very limited attacking efficiency points most strongly towards a draw, likely in a low-scoring game.

The strongest signal against BTTS - Yes comes from Amiens’ attack, which have yet to score during the analysed away period, averaging 0.0 shots on target per match with a shot conversion rate of 0%. The visitors have failed to score in 100% of their matches, while Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of games and concede an average of just 0.5 goals. Both teams have a season BTTS rate of 0%, while over their last five matches, these figures stand at just 40% for Bastia and 20% for Amiens. Amiens’ creative potential remains low, with an average xG of 0.73, while Bastia allow opponents just 0.77 xG. A scenario in which at least one side fails to score is therefore clearly more likely than both teams finding the net.

The match profile points to a limited number of chances: Bastia’s average xG at home is 0.91, while Amiens’ away average is just 0.73. Amiens have failed to score in 100% of their away matches so far, while Bastia have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their home games. In their last five appearances, only 20% of Amiens’ matches and 40% of Bastia’s games went Over 2.5 goals, compared with a league average Over 2.5 rate of 31%. Additionally, both teams have recorded 100% of matches Under 3.5 goals in the current sample, making Under 3.5 the strongest pick with a projected total of 1.65 goals.

Bastia have the clearer attacking potential, averaging 1.5 goals per match, while Amiens are yet to score, and the hosts’ xG stands at 0.91 compared with 0.73 for the visitors. Bastia’s advantage is particularly evident after half-time, when they average 1.5 goals and concede none, whereas Amiens neither score nor concede in this phase of matches. The hosts average 3 shots on target per match, while the visitors have recorded none, with Amiens’ xG against at 1.35 also higher than Bastia’s 0.77. In their last five matches, Bastia have held a lead at the break in 50% of cases, compared with 20% for Amiens, supporting the HT/FT option of the hosts leading at half-time. The visitors’ poor finishing, having failed to score in 100% of their matches so far, favours Bastia maintaining their lead until full-time.