Bastia vs Boulogne: match statistics
Statistical analysis points to even chances for both teams, which advocates for a draw. Bastia sits 18th in the table and suffers from poor home form with only a 17% win rate at home, having failed to secure a single victory in their last 5 matches. Boulogne, ranked 12th, shows better away form with a 31% win rate and higher goalscoring efficiency (0.92 goals per away game compared to Bastia's 0.58 at home). The key factor, however, is Boulogne's high draw percentage on the road (38%) and the fact that both teams have similar average xG (1.4 for Bastia, 1.49 for Boulogne), suggesting equal offensive potential. Bastia holds an edge in ball possession (55% vs 47%), but their low efficiency (4% shot conversion rate) and a 50% rate of matches without scoring at home limit their chances of winning. Given the hosts' poor form and the visitors' tendency to draw, a split of points is the most likely outcome.
Bastia vs Boulogne: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Bastia played Boulogne in Ligue 2 (France). The match was played on 13 March 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
Bastia: 0-4-1, 0.80 points/match. Boulogne: 2-1-2, 1.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
Bastia scores 0.54 and concedes 1.12 goals per match. Boulogne scores 1.12 and concedes 1.46. League average: 2.45 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Bastia 27%, Boulogne 54%. Over 2.5: Bastia 19%, Boulogne 50%. League level: BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 47%.
xG, shots and style
Boulogne has higher xG: 1.34 vs 1.22. Bastia: 11.2 shots per match, Boulogne: 11.0.
Match halves
Bastia: half-time lead 15%, second-half goals 0.23. Boulogne: half-time lead 8%, second-half goals 0.85.
Goals by minute
Bastia: 16-30 (4 goals). Boulogne: 76-90+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Ligue 2: 2.45 goals per match, BTTS 50%, Over 2.5 47%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 1 previous H2H matches were available: 0-0-1. Average goals 1.00, BTTS 0%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
Statistical analysis points to even chances for both teams, which advocates for a draw. Bastia sits 18th in the table and suffers from poor home form with only a 17% win rate at home, having failed to secure a single victory in their last 5 matches. Boulogne, ranked 12th, shows better away form with a 31% win rate and higher goalscoring efficiency (0.92 goals per away game compared to Bastia's 0.58 at home). The key factor, however, is Boulogne's high draw percentage on the road (38%) and the fact that both teams have similar average xG (1.4 for Bastia, 1.49 for Boulogne), suggesting equal offensive potential. Bastia holds an edge in ball possession (55% vs 47%), but their low efficiency (4% shot conversion rate) and a 50% rate of matches without scoring at home limit their chances of winning. Given the hosts' poor form and the visitors' tendency to draw, a split of points is the most likely outcome.
View the statistical overviewHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Bastia | Boulogne | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 28% | 34% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.17 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Boulogne is 75% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Bastia · 1.4 pts / match - Boulogne
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Boulogne is 107% better for: goals scored per match.
0.54 goals / match - Bastia · 1.12 goals / match - Boulogne
Bastia is 30% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.12 goals / match - Bastia · 1.46 goals / match - Boulogne
Bastia scores in 38% of matches (10 of 26 matches), while Boulogne keeps a clean sheet in 19% (5 of 26 matches).
Boulogne scores in 69% of matches (18 of 26 matches), while Bastia keeps a clean sheet in 38% (10 of 26 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Bastia
Over / Under - Boulogne
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Bastia is 26% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.92 pts / match - Bastia · 0.73 pts / match - Boulogne
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Bastia - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 15% of matches and wins 12%. Usually protects the lead until full-time.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
Boulogne - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 8% of matches and wins 31%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.60 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.0 |
| Average goals in match | 1.4 | 0.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 20% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 0% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 100% |
| No goal | 60% | 80% |
| Goal difference | -3 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.4 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 2.2 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (4 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): -5 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (10 goals). Concedes most in 0-15 (8). Late-goal balance (76-90): +3 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Bastia
Boulogne
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Ligue 2).
Teams vs league
| Bastia | Liga | Boulogne | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 1.65 | 2.45 | ▲ 2.58 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 27% | 50% | ▲ 54% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 19% | 47% | ▲ 50% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 38% | 30% | ▼ 19% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 58% | 64% | ▼ 62% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 50% | 73% | ▲ 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Referee context
See how often this referee shows cards, awards penalties and how their matches tend to finish.
Head-to-head
Previous meeting: Bastia 0 - 0 - 1 Boulogne. Average goals 1.00, both teams scored in 0% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Bastia vs Boulogne?
The Ligue 2 match finished Bastia 0:1 Boulogne. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before Bastia vs Boulogne?
Bastia score 0.54 goals per game on average and Boulogne 1.12. The Ligue 2 average is 2.45 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 47% of games. Both teams score in 27% of Bastia's matches and 54% of Boulogne's.
What form are Bastia and Boulogne in?
Over the last 5 games Bastia have a 0-4-1 record (0.80 points per game) and Boulogne 2-1-2 (1.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Bastia vs Boulogne?
The statistical background for Bastia vs Boulogne — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.