Bastia vs Quevilly Rouen: match statistics

A draw appears to be the most likely outcome, as neither team has won any of their last 5 matches at home or away, respectively, and each has drawn 2 of them. Bastia pose a greater threat at home, averaging 10.6 shots and scoring 0.8 goals per match, while Quevilly Rouen average 7.8 shots and 0.4 goals away from home. However, the visitors have been more effective overall recently, scoring 7 goals and earning 8 points in their last 5 matches, compared with Bastia’s 4 goals and 6 points. The hosts’ defensive weakness, conceding an average of 2 goals per home match, gives the visitors a chance despite their attacking struggles on the road. Meanwhile, Quevilly Rouen’s away xG of 0.89, compared with the 1.51 xG they concede, suggests they will find it difficult to dominate the match convincingly.

The strongest case for BTTS - No is Quevilly Rouen’s poor away scoring record: an average of 0.4 goals per match and no goal in 60% of those games. Bastia average 1.8 goals at home, while the visitors concede 1.6 away from home, making a Bastia goal more likely. However, the prediction is not clear-cut, as Bastia recorded BTTS in 100% of their home matches and kept no clean sheets in those games. The teams’ last 5 matches also offer evidence for goals at both ends: BTTS occurred in 60% of Bastia’s games and 80% of Quevilly Rouen’s. Despite these indications, the visitors’ away average of 0.4 goals outweighs their recent improvement and suggests they are more likely to be the side that fails to score. BTTS - No means at least one team does not score; it does not necessarily mean a 0-0 draw or that neither team scores.

The strongest pick is Under 3.5 goals: this line has not been exceeded in 80% of matches involving either Bastia or Quevilly Rouen. Bastia average 1.8 goals scored, while the visitors concede 1.6, giving the hosts a clear advantage; however, Quevilly Rouen score just 0.4 goals per match in the dataset analysed. Caution about expecting a higher-scoring game is also supported by the two attacks’ average xG figures of 0.92 and 0.89, as well as the league average of 2.41 goals. In their last five matches, Quevilly Rouen scored and conceded 1.4 goals per game, so the risk of a more open contest is there, but the 2.32-goal projection still points more clearly to a match with no more than three goals.

The strongest signal in favor of Bastia leading at the break is their home record: they were ahead at half-time in 3 of 5 matches, while Quevilly Rouen were trailing at the break in 2 of 5 away fixtures. The hosts average 1.0 goal before half-time, while the visitors concede 0.8 goals away from home during that period. The full-time record supports Bastia holding on to their lead: they won 3 of 5 home matches and lost none, whereas Quevilly Rouen have won none of their 5 away games. The visitors score just 0.4 goals per away match and failed to score after half-time in any of those fixtures, limiting their chances of a turnaround. Caution is warranted, however, as both teams have often been level at half-time across their last 5 matches regardless of venue—Bastia in 3 and Quevilly Rouen in 4—so a half-time draw followed by a home win remains a significant alternative.