Bayer Leverkusen vs Wolfsburg: match statistics

Bayer Leverkusen is the clear favorite: they sit 6th in the table, have scored 52 goals this season versus Wolfsburg’s 35 (17th) and average 2.00 goals at home with an xG of 1.79. At home Leverkusen averages 15.92 shots with 5.62 on target and 61% possession, while Wolfsburg on the road averages 9.62 shots (3.08 on target) with 42% possession and 23% of away matches without a goal. The home defense is stronger: at home they concede 0.92 goals per game and keep 46% clean sheets, whereas the visitors concede 2.15 goals on average away and have only 8% clean sheets. The last five matches show a dip in form for both teams — Leverkusen have scored 8 and conceded 10 (0 wins, 4 draws, 1 loss; 0.8 pts/game), while Wolfsburg have 4 goals and 11 conceded (0 wins, 1 draw, 4 losses; 0.2 pts/game). Given the superiority in quality of chances (xG 1.79 vs 1.06), greater control of the game and shot metrics, I expect a home win.

Both teams exhibit high BTTS rates: Bayer Leverkusen 79% and Wolfsburg 69% this season, clearly above the league average of 57%. Both defenses are susceptible to conceding — Leverkusen concedes on average 2.07 goals per match, Wolfsburg 2.15, with last 5 matches averaging 2.0 and 2.2 goals respectively. Leverkusen’s attack generates xG 1.53 on average (last 5: 1.62) and 4.57 shots on target per match; Wolfsburg has xG 1.06 (last 5: 1.16) and 3.08 shots on target, with shot-to-goal conversion rates of 11% vs 12%. Clean sheets are scarce for both sides: percentage of matches without conceding is 0% for the home team and 8% for the visitors, while matches over 2.5 goals occur in 71% of home games and 62% of away games. Based on this, I prefer BTTS - Yes with an estimated probability around 80% vs 20%, since the combination of season BTTS rates of 79% and 69%, weak defensive averages (2.07 and 2.15) and last 5 matches 80% vs 60% strongly indicate both teams will score.

Expected goals, calculated as the average of the home attack xG and away defense xG, are 1.78 for Bayer Leverkusen and 1.41 for Wolfsburg, totaling 3.19 goals. A Poisson model with lambda=3.19 yields ~83% chance for Over 1.5 goals (probability of 0 or 1 goal = 17%), 62% for Over 2.5 and 40% for Over 3.5. This is supported by seasonal metrics: Leverkusen have 71% of matches Over 2.5 and 86% Over 1.5, Wolfsburg 62% and 77%, and both teams record BTTS in 79% and 69% of fixtures respectively. Additionally, Leverkusen average 12.93 shots (4.57 on target) per game, Wolfsburg 9.62 (3.08 on target), and xG of 1.53 vs 1.06 indicates genuine scoring opportunities on both sides. Consequently the strongest signal is Over, with a recommended market Over 1.5 — driven by the 83% probability >1.5 and consistent confirmation from seasonal Over 2.5 rates and a high share of BTTS matches.

The most likely HT/FT scenario is a draw at half-time and a draw at full-time (X/X). Leverkusen recorded 4 draws in their last 5 matches (80%) and 0 wins in that period, and both teams have low season win rates (14% for the home side vs. 23% for the away side), which favors draw outcomes. Additionally, both teams frequently finish matches with both teams scoring: 79% of the home team’s matches and 69% of the away team’s matches see both sides score, and xG shows a slight home advantage (1.53 vs. 1.06) with average shots on target of 4.57 vs. 3.08, suggesting a scoring draw (e.g., 1-1). The hosts have a higher average first-half goals in the last 5 games (1.0 vs. 0.4 for the visitors), so an alternative signal is the home team leading at the break and the match finishing as a draw (1/X). Therefore X/X received the highest probability (30%), with 1/X as the second-strongest option (18%).