BB Erzurumspor vs Konyaspor: match statistics

Both teams have made a poor start to the season, but Konyaspor are creating significantly more danger: away from home, they average 17 shots and 8 on target, compared with Erzurumspor’s 12 and 4 respectively at home. The visitors score an average of 2 goals on the road, with an xG of 2.00, while the hosts have yet to score at home despite an xG of 1.28. Both defences are highly error-prone, as the teams concede an average of 4 goals in their respective home or away matches, and neither side has kept a clean sheet. Erzurumspor have, however, recorded 3 draws in their last 5 matches, while Konyaspor have lost all 5, increasing the likelihood of a closely contested game. Nevertheless, the visitors’ edge in the quality and number of chances created points to a narrow victory.

The BTTS signal is strengthened by the fact that neither team has kept a single clean sheet, while Konyaspor has landed this market in 100% of their matches so far. Erzurumspor score only 0.5 goals on average, but Konyaspor concede as many as 4.0 goals per match and allow opponents an average xG of 2.19, which clearly increases the hosts’ chances of breaking through. The visitors are far more active offensively: they generate an xG of 2.00, register 17.0 shots and 8.0 shots on target per match, while Erzurumspor’s defence allows opponents an xG of 1.76. In their last five matches, both teams recorded BTTS at 60%, while also conceding an average of 2.0 and 2.4 goals respectively, so both teams scoring remains more likely than either side failing to score. The risk to the pick comes from the hosts’ poor current finishing, as they have scored just 3 goals in their last five appearances; however, Konyaspor’s very weak defence outweighs this concern in favour of the BTTS - Yes scenario.

The 2.50-goal projection is based on Konyaspor’s clear attacking superiority, with the visitors averaging 2.00 xG and 8.0 shots on target per match, compared with Erzurumspor’s 0.83 xG and 1.5 shots on target. However, the hosts have averaged only 0.6 goals over their last five matches, while Konyaspor have averaged 0.8 during the same period, limiting the likelihood of a very high-scoring game. Both defenses remain vulnerable, as Erzurumspor have conceded 2.0 goals per match in their last five fixtures, compared with 2.4 for the visitors, making at least two goals clearly likely. At the same time, the combined average xG from the teams’ most recent matches stands at 2.38, while only 40% of the hosts’ last five games went Over 2.5 goals. The strongest option is Under 3.5 goals: Konyaspor’s superiority should give the visitors scoring opportunities, but the poor finishing of both teams in their current form does not support a scenario with four or more goals.

The most likely outcome is a draw both at half-time and at full-time, as Erzurumspor have drawn 3 of their last 5 matches and have not recorded a single victory during this period. The hosts have failed to score before the break in each of their last five matches, while conceding an average of 0.8 goals, which clearly limits their chances of taking an early lead. Konyaspor are also on a poor run of five consecutive defeats, with an average of just 0.8 goals scored and as many as 2.4 conceded per match over their last five fixtures. Both teams regularly concede after the break — Erzurumspor average 1.2 and Konyaspor 1.4 goals conceded — but their limited attacking efficiency, at 0.6 and 0.8 goals scored per match respectively, points towards an evenly balanced finish. The half-time draw is further supported by the fact that the hosts were level at the break in 60% of their last five appearances.