Be'sat Kermanshah vs Naft Gachsaran: match statistics

Both teams are in very poor form, but Naft Gachsaran have scored 4 goals in their last 5 matches, compared with just 1 for Be'sat Kermanshah. The hosts have lost all 5 of their most recent games, conceding 10 goals in the process—an average of 2.0 per match. The visitors also have defensive problems, having conceded 12 goals in five appearances, but they managed to earn one draw, while Be'sat failed to collect a single point during that period. Despite Be'sat's 2nd-place position in the table, the current-season home data is incomplete, and recent form clearly works against the hosts. Naft Gachsaran's greater attacking efficiency and slightly better recent result suggest a narrow advantage for the visitors, although the high number of goals conceded by both sides increases the risk of a draw.

The strongest argument against BTTS - Yes is Be'sat Kermanshah's very poor finishing: the team has scored just 1 goal in its last 5 matches, averaging 0.2 per game. BTTS has occurred in only 20% of the hosts' matches during this period, compared with 40% for Naft Gachsaran. The visitors are also not particularly strong offensively, scoring an average of 0.8 goals per game across their last five fixtures. Both teams concede heavily, averaging 2.0 and 2.4 goals per match respectively, which favours one-sided results, especially given Be'sat's five-match losing streak and Naft's four defeats in five games. Therefore, the scenario in which at least one team fails to score is clearly more likely than both teams finding the net.

The available season data is incomplete, so the last 5 matches played by both teams carry the greatest weight. Be'sat Kermanshah scored just 0.2 goals per match during this period, netting 1 goal in total, while conceding an average of 2.0 goals. Naft Gachsaran have been slightly more effective in attack, averaging 0.8 goals scored, but they also conceded as many as 12 goals in 5 matches, or 2.4 per game. Despite both teams’ weak defenses, the hosts very rarely contribute goals to high-scoring games, and the percentage of matches with at least 4 goals is not supported by the data; the projected total of 2.45 goals clearly favors Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Naft Gachsaran win at full-time, as the visitors have averaged 0.8 goals over their last five matches, compared with just 0.2 for Be'sat Kermanshah. However, the first halves of both teams’ matches have been low-scoring: the hosts averaged 0.25 goals before the break and the visitors 0.20, while a half-time draw occurred in 25% and 40% of the analysed matches, respectively. Be'sat have lost all five of their last matches and conceded an average of 2.0 goals per game, whereas Naft, despite their poor run, picked up a point in one of their five matches and have a higher post-half-time points return—0.8 compared with 0.5. After the break, the visitors averaged 0.6 goals, while the hosts failed to score a single one, clearly increasing the likelihood that an evenly matched start will turn into an away win at full-time.