Beerschot-Wilrijk vs Lierse Kempenzonen: match statistics

Beerschot-Wilrijk are top of the table and have won all of their home matches so far, scoring an average of 4 goals per game on home soil. The hosts create significantly more danger, averaging 18 shots, including 8 on target, with an xG of 2.09, while Lierse Kempenzonen average just 9.5 shots, 3 on target and an xG of 1.30 away from home. Beerschot’s home defence allows opponents an xG of just 0.80 and concedes an average of 1 goal, whereas the visitors concede 2 goals per away game and have failed to keep a single clean sheet. Lierse score just 0.5 goals per game away from home and have failed to score in 50% of such matches, which significantly limits their chances of an upset. The difference is also reflected in their current form: the hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches, while the visitors have won just 1, drawing as many as 3.

The signal leans slightly toward BTTS - No, as Lierse Kempenzonen average just 0.5 goals per match and have failed to score in 50% of their games. Beerschot-Wilrijk have kept a clean sheet in 50% of matches, while the visitors average 3.0 shots on target with a conversion rate of just 5%. The home side have been significantly more dangerous recently, averaging 2.0 goals over their last five matches compared with Lierse’s 0.8, making a home win with a clean sheet for the hosts a realistic scenario. Although the visitors’ xG over their last five matches stands at 1.47, their actual return is just 4 goals, pointing to a finishing problem. Both teams have recorded BTTS in 50% of their season matches, but the league average of 46% and Beerschot’s defensively favourable data shift the prediction toward at least one team failing to score.

Beerschot-Wilrijk have the clearer attacking potential: they create an average of 1.52 xG and register 4.5 shots on target per match, while Lierse score just 0.5 goals on average. However, the hosts are solid without the ball, conceding an average of 0.5 goals, while their xG against over the last five matches stood at 1.22. Both teams have recorded 100% of their matches under 3.5 goals in the current league data, and neither has yet played a game with at least four goals. Beerschot’s recent form—2.0 goals scored and 1.4 conceded per match—increases the likelihood of 2-3 goals, but does not provide strong grounds for a four-goal scenario. The projected total of 2.42 goals therefore indicates that the safest edge lies with Under 3.5 goals.

The strongest scenario is a draw at half-time followed by a Beerschot-Wilrijk win after the match, as the hosts were level at the break in both of their home fixtures so far, while Lierse Kempenzonen went into half-time trailing in both away games. In their last five matches, Beerschot led at the break in 40% of them and scored an average of 0.6 goals before half-time, whereas Lierse failed to score a single first-half goal during this period. The hosts’ advantage should grow after the interval: in their last five appearances, they averaged 1.4 goals in the second half, compared with 0.8 for the visitors. Beerschot won 60% of their last five matches, while Lierse won only 20%; in addition, the visitors concede an average of 2.0 goals per away match while scoring just 0.5. The hosts also create more chances, averaging 14.0 shots and 4.5 shots on target per match, compared with 9.5 and 3.0 for Lierse, which supports a second-half outcome in their favour.