Bekasi City vs Persekat: match statistics

Bekasi City holds a clear statistical advantage: at home they score an average of 1.82 goals and concede only 0.55 per match, while Persekat away scores 0.55 and concedes 1.82, giving the hosts a substantial outcome edge. The home side averages 12.4 shots and 4.6 on target per match with a 13% conversion rate, versus the visitors’ 7 shots and 3 on target with a 7% conversion, meaning Bekasi generates significantly more and higher-quality chances. In terms of chance quality, home xG for Bekasi is 1.5 compared to guests’ 1.03 xG away, while xGAgainst stands at 1.51 vs 1.63, suggesting Bekasi both makes better use of created opportunities and more effectively limits the opponent. In the last 5 matches Bekasi recorded 3 wins and 2 losses (an average of 1.8 points per game), whereas Persekat has 1 win, 1 draw and 3 losses (0.8 points per game), confirming the hosts’ superior form. Additionally, the hosts keep a clean sheet in 55% of home matches vs 27% clean sheets for the visitors away, and Persekat fail to score in 45% of their away games, so the most likely scenario is a Bekasi City victory.

Bekasi City scores on average 0.91 goals and concedes 0.82 at home, while Persekat averages only 0.55 goals per game and concedes 1.82, suggesting Persekat concedes more often but rarely scores. Bekasi generates significantly higher xG (1.64 vs 1.03 for Persekat) and produces more shots (13.09 vs 7.0) and more shots on target (5.45 vs 3.0), indicating a clear advantage in chance creation. Seasonal BTTS rate is 45% for Bekasi and 27% for Persekat, and Bekasi keeps a clean sheet in 55% of matches versus 27% for Persekat, so the home defense is a key argument for No BTTS. Even if Persekat has a 60% BTTS in the last 5 matches, considering the season-long figures (under 1 goal per game for Persekat and higher xG against of 1.63), the No BTTS scenario looks stronger.

xG analysis indicates expected goals: Bekasi City has xG_for 1.64 while Persekat has xG_against 1.63, yielding ~1.64 expected goals for the home side; for the visitors xG_for 1.03 versus home xG_against 1.09 gives ~1.06 expected goals, total 2.70. A Poisson model at this mean (2.70) produces ~75% probability for Over 1.5 goals, ~51% for Over 2.5 and ~29% for Over 3.5; additionally, seasonally Over 1.5 occurred in 55% of Bekasi’s matches and 64% of Persekat’s. However, actual season goal averages are 0.91 (Bekasi) and 0.55 (Persekat), total 1.46, showing both teams significantly underperform xG (Bekasi 0.91/1.64, Persekat 0.55/1.03) which weakens the signal for the 2.5 line. Supporting Over 1.5 is the home advantage in chance creation: 13.09 shots and 5.45 shots on target per match versus Persekat’s 7.0 and 3.0, and the last 5 matches where both teams averaged 1.0 goal each, reinforcing the likelihood of at least 2 goals. Therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest signal due to clear home xG and shot dominance, while Over 2.5 remains uncertain (~51%) because of poor finishing efficiency (around 7% conversion) and low season scoring averages.

At half-time the most likely outcome is a draw: Bekasi were level at the break in 7 of 11 matches (64%), whereas Persekat did not lead at half-time in any fixture (0%) and were trailing in 6 of 11 (55%). The home side clearly dominate chance creation — home xG is 1.64 versus 1.03 for the visitors, on average 5.45 shots on target versus 3.0, and a seasonal goals average of 0.91 (Bekasi) vs 0.55 (Persekat), while Persekat concedes on average 1.82 goals per match. After the break the edge shifts to the hosts: in the last five matches Bekasi have recorded 3 wins (60%) compared to Persekat’s single win (20%), indicating better form and a greater ability to score in the second half. For these reasons the most probable scenario is a draw at half-time and a Bekasi win at full-time (X/1), which I assign the highest probability.