Bellinzona vs Rapperswil-Jona: match statistics
Bellinzona vs Rapperswil-Jona: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
Bellinzona played Rapperswil-Jona in Challenge League (Switzerland). The match was played on 3 May 2026. Final score: 2:4.
Current form
Bellinzona: 1-1-3, 0.80 points/match. Rapperswil-Jona: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match.
Goal statistics
Bellinzona scores 1.06 and concedes 1.94 goals per match. Rapperswil-Jona scores 1.34 and concedes 1.66. League average: 2.94 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: Bellinzona 41%, Rapperswil-Jona 59%. Over 2.5: Bellinzona 56%, Rapperswil-Jona 63%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 58%.
xG, shots and style
Rapperswil-Jona has higher xG: 1.39 vs 1.29. Bellinzona: 11.5 shots per match, Rapperswil-Jona: 11.4.
Match halves
Bellinzona: half-time lead 13%, second-half goals 0.50. Rapperswil-Jona: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.63.
Goals by minute
Bellinzona: 31-45+ (9 goals). Rapperswil-Jona: 31-45+ (10 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Challenge League: 2.94 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 58%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 3 previous H2H matches were available: 0-1-2. Average goals 2.67, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back an away win ('2') because Rapperswil-Jona have 12 wins this season and have scored 11 goals in their last 5 matches versus Bellinzona's 5 wins and 9 goals. The visitors average 1.5 goals on the road while the hosts average 1.25 goals at home; the visitors record 4.56 shots on target per away match versus 3.75 for the home side. Rapperswil-Jona average 1.8 points in their last 5 matches compared to Bellinzona's 0.8 and have won 3 of their last 5 fixtures while Bellinzona have won only 1. Additionally, Bellinzona fail to score in 56% of home games, whereas Rapperswil-Jona fail to score in only 13% of away matches; both teams concede on average 1.63 goals per game, indicating that decisive factors will be superior chance conversion. Considering the visitors' better shot conversion (13% vs 11%) and higher offensive xG for Rapperswil-Jona (1.39 vs 1.31), I assess probabilities as 60% for the away team, 25% for a draw and 15% for the home team.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show strong BTTS indicators: Rapperswil-Jona 69% this season and 80% in the last 5 matches, Bellinzona 50% this season and 60% in the last 5, versus the league average of 54%. Both sides also concede frequently: Bellinzona have conceded 62 goals this season (1.69 per game), Rapperswil 53 (1.63), and xG against is 1.84 for Bellinzona and 1.94 for Rapperswil, suggesting genuine chances for both. In the last 5 matches Bellinzona scored 9 and conceded 10 (1.8 and 2.0 on average), while Rapperswil scored 11 and conceded 9 (2.2 and 1.8), so both teams regularly participate in goal-filled games. Additionally the visitors are more efficient offensively: season average xG are equal (1.39 vs 1.39), but shot conversion 13% vs 10%, 4.56 vs 3.94 shots on target and only 13% of matches without a goal for Rapperswil versus 25% for Bellinzona increase the likelihood of goals from both sides. Considering 63% of matches over 2.5 goals for both teams and higher BTTS rates for Rapperswil, I assess BTTS as more likely and assign 75% to 'Yes' vs 25% to 'No'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-based model (Bellinzona attack xG 1.39 and Rapperswil-Jona attack xG 1.39; xG conceded vs Bellinzona 1.84 and vs Rapperswil-Jona 1.94) yields expected goals of 1.67 for the home side and 1.62 for the visitors, totaling 3.29 goals. Using a Poisson distribution with λ=3.29, the probability of at least 2 goals (Over 1.5) is approximately 84%, which aligns with seasonal Over 1.5 rates: 69% for Bellinzona and 88% for Rapperswil-Jona. Additionally, in the last 5 matches both teams have 80% of games over 2.5 goals, and the average goals scored in the last 5 are 1.8 (Bellinzona) and 2.2 (Rapperswil-Jona), totaling about 4.0 goals per match based on recent form. Shot and finishing metrics confirm this: on average 11.31 and 11.56 shots with 3.94 and 4.56 on target, conversion rates of 10% and 13%, and clean sheets occurring in only 31% and 19% of matches. As a result I recommend backing Over as the play; the strongest signal is Over 1.5 (probability ~84%), while Over 2.5 also makes sense (~64%), and Over 3.5 is less certain (~42%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Half-Time statistics strongly favor a draw: the home team led at the break in 4 matches (25%) and were level at half-time in 9 (56%), while the away team led in 4 matches (25%) and were level in 8 (50%), with the average goals at half-time equal for both sides (AVGHT_home 1.44 vs AVGHT_away 1.44). In the second half the away side holds a clearer advantage — they score on average 0.81 goals after the break versus 0.44 for the home team (scored_2hg_avg_away 0.81 vs scored_2hg_avg_home 0.44) and in the last 5 matches they have won 60% of games compared to 20% for the home team (last5_winPercentage_overall_away 60% vs last5_winPercentage_overall_home 20%). Both teams’ xG is similar (xG 1.39 vs 1.39), but the away team is more efficient in finishing — shot conversion 13% vs 10% and on average 4.56 vs 3.94 shots on target, which increases the likelihood of a turnaround in the second half. For this reason the most probable scenario is a draw at half-time and an away win at full-time (X/2), therefore this scenario carries the highest weight in the distribution.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| Bellinzona | Rapperswil-Jona | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 30% | 37% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.11 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.30 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Rapperswil-Jona is 125% better for: last-5 form.
0.8 pts / match - Bellinzona · 1.8 pts / match - Rapperswil-Jona
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Rapperswil-Jona is 26% better for: goals scored per match.
1.06 goals / match - Bellinzona · 1.34 goals / match - Rapperswil-Jona
Rapperswil-Jona is 17% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.94 goals / match - Bellinzona · 1.66 goals / match - Rapperswil-Jona
Bellinzona scores in 50% of matches (16 of 32 matches), while Rapperswil-Jona keeps a clean sheet in 25% (8 of 32 matches).
Rapperswil-Jona scores in 81% of matches (26 of 32 matches), while Bellinzona keeps a clean sheet in 19% (6 of 32 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - Bellinzona
Over / Under - Rapperswil-Jona
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Rapperswil-Jona is 58% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
0.81 pts / match - Bellinzona · 1.28 pts / match - Rapperswil-Jona
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
Bellinzona - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 13% of matches and wins 16%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Rapperswil-Jona - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.2 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 2.0 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 40% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 2.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 2.2 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 40% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 60% |
| No goal | 40% | 0% |
| Goal difference | -1 | +3 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (9 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (17). Late-goal balance (76-90): -9 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (10 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (13). Late-goal balance (76-90): -3 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
Bellinzona
Rapperswil-Jona
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Challenge League).
Teams vs league
| Bellinzona | Liga | Rapperswil-Jona | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | • 3.00 | 2.94 | • 3.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 41% | 55% | ▲ 59% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 56% | 58% | ▲ 63% |
| Clean sheets | ▼ 19% | 26% | • 25% |
| Goal before half-time | • 69% | 69% | • 69% |
| Goal after half-time | ▼ 78% | 80% | • 81% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (3): Bellinzona 0 - 1 - 2 Rapperswil-Jona. Average goals 2.67, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of Bellinzona vs Rapperswil-Jona?
The Challenge League match finished Bellinzona 2:4 Rapperswil-Jona. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between Bellinzona and Rapperswil-Jona?
In the last 3 head-to-head matches Bellinzona won 0, Rapperswil-Jona won 2 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.67 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before Bellinzona vs Rapperswil-Jona?
Bellinzona score 1.06 goals per game on average and Rapperswil-Jona 1.34. The Challenge League average is 2.94 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 58% of games. Both teams score in 41% of Bellinzona's matches and 59% of Rapperswil-Jona's.
What form are Bellinzona and Rapperswil-Jona in?
Over the last 5 games Bellinzona have a 1-1-3 record (0.80 points per game) and Rapperswil-Jona 3-0-2 (1.80 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for Bellinzona vs Rapperswil-Jona?
The statistical background for Bellinzona vs Rapperswil-Jona — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under — is on this page. The tip with full reasoning and a value assessment is in the NoFluffPicks app.