Ben Guerdane vs CS Sfaxien: match statistics

CS Sfaxien sit 4th, while Ben Guerdane are 11th, and the visitors have collected 10 points from their last 5 matches thanks to 3 wins and a draw. Ben Guerdane have taken 7 points over the same period, scoring just 3 goals, although their defence has conceded only 2. Sfaxien have been clearly more effective in attack, scoring 8 goals in their last five matches, and in their only away game so far they averaged 9 shots, including 4 on target. The visitors are still unbeaten away from home, but their only such match ended in a 1:1 draw, while an xG of 1.07 compared with the opponents’ xG of 1.39 points to the possibility of a closely contested encounter. Sfaxien’s stronger recent form and greater goalscoring potential support a narrow victory, but the hosts’ low attacking efficiency also increases the likelihood of a draw.

The full-season data is very limited, but both teams have recorded BTTS in 100% of their matches so far, and neither side has kept a clean sheet. However, the current form of Ben Guerdane provides a much stronger signal: they have scored just 3 goals in their last five matches, averaging 0.6 per game, with BTTS occurring in 0% of those fixtures. The hosts have also conceded only 0.4 goals per match during this period, while CS Sfaxien have averaged 1.6 goals and recorded BTTS in 80% of their recent matches. Ben Guerdane’s low xG from their last five games, at 0.71, together with the league average of just 1.73 goals per match, suggests that at least one team may fail to score. Therefore, the BTTS - Yes pick is not the more likely outcome, primarily due to the hosts’ poor recent finishing.

The league profile clearly favors low-scoring outcomes: the average across all matches is just 1.73 goals, while the 2.5-goal line was exceeded in 27% of games. Ben Guerdane scored only 0.6 goals per match in their last five outings and allowed opponents just 0.4 goals, with their own xG standing at 0.71. CS Sfaxien are more effective in attack, averaging 1.6 goals and an xG of 1.44 over their last five matches, while also conceding only 1.0 goal per game. The hosts have not exceeded 2.5 total goals in any of their last five matches, whereas this occurred in 60% of the visitors’ games, suggesting a moderate risk of a higher-scoring result, but not an open end-to-end contest. The projected total of 1.73 goals provides particularly strong value on Under 3.5 goals, as at least four goals are required for this bet to lose.

CS Sfaxien are in clearly better current form: they have averaged 1.6 goals and won 60% of their last five matches, while Ben Guerdane have scored just 0.6 goals and lost 40% of their games. The visitors’ advantage is particularly evident before half-time, as they were leading at the break in 60% of their recent appearances, compared with just 20% for the hosts; their average first-half goal figures are 1.0 and 0.2, respectively. Although Ben Guerdane conceded only 0.4 goals per match during this run, they failed to score in as many as 80% of first halves, limiting their chances of a quick response. The visitors also average 9 shots per match compared with 8 for the hosts, while their attacking xG is almost identical to that of the hosts—1.07 versus 1.08—with significantly better current finishing efficiency. The most likely scenario is therefore one in which CS Sfaxien make the most of their stronger start and maintain their lead until the final whistle.