Benevento vs Modena: match statistics

Benevento sit 4th, while Modena are only 14th, indicating a clear difference in the teams’ performances so far. The hosts have won 3 of their last 5 matches and scored 13 goals in that period, averaging 2.6 goals per game. Modena, by contrast, have suffered 4 defeats over the same period and scored just 4 goals, averaging 0.8 per match. Benevento’s defence has not been flawless, conceding 10 goals in five games, but the visitors’ poor finishing limits their chances of exploiting this weakness. Over their last five matches, the hosts have averaged 2 points per game compared with Modena’s 0.6, making a Benevento win the most likely outcome.

The strongest argument against BTTS - Yes is Modena’s attack: over their last 5 matches, they have averaged just 0.8 goals, scoring 4 in total, with an xG of only 0.92. Benevento did concede 2.0 goals per match during this period and allowed opponents an xG of 1.45, giving the visitors a realistic, though not dominant, chance of scoring. The hosts are far more effective, averaging 2.6 goals and scoring 13 times in 5 matches, so a Benevento win is likely even if Modena fail to score. BTTS occurred in 80% of Benevento’s last matches, but in only 40% of Modena’s games, and the visitors’ poor attacking output slightly shifts the forecast toward a scenario in which at least one team fails to score — BTTS - No.

The strongest pick is Over 1.5 goals, as Benevento’s last five matches produced an average of 4.6 goals: the team scored 2.6 and conceded 2.0 goals per game. Modena have been considerably less productive in attack, averaging 0.8 goals scored, but their defense allowed 1.4 goals per game. The hosts created chances worth an average of 1.68 xG, while Modena allowed their opponents 1.63 xG, clearly supporting the scenario of at least two goals. Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of Benevento’s last five matches, compared with only 40% of Modena’s games, making the 2.5 line considerably more balanced. The projected total of 2.75 goals gives Over 1.5 a solid edge, while confidence in the higher Over 3.5 line remains limited.

Benevento are in significantly better form: over their last five matches, they have averaged 2.6 goals and won 60% of their games, while Modena have scored just 0.8 goals, lost 80% of their matches and averaged only 0.6 points. The hosts already average 1.25 goals before half-time, and their matches featured at least two goals before the break in 75% of cases, which supports the likelihood of taking an early lead. Modena have recorded a half-time lead in 40% of their matches, but their attacking output after the break virtually disappears, with an average of just 0.2 goals, while they fail to score in 80% of those halves. Benevento average 1.5 goals after half-time and win the second half in 50% of their matches, so even a narrow lead at the break should be maintained or extended. The strongest individual scenario is therefore Benevento leading at half-time and securing the full-time win, corresponding to the HT/FT pick 1/1.