Benfica vs Vitória Guimarães: match statistics

Benfica sit 2nd and have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring 13 goals in that span; Vitória Guimarães are 14th and have managed just one win and 3 goals over the same period. At home, Benfica average 2.33 goals and 8 shots on target per match, while the visitors average 1 goal and 4 shots on target away from home. The hosts’ advantage is also reflected in chance quality: their home xG stands at 2.64, compared with Vitória’s away xG of 1.44. Benfica allow opponents chances worth an average of 0.63 xG at home, although they concede 1.33 goals per match, so their defence does not guarantee a clean sheet. The visitors have lost all 3 of their away matches so far, conceding an average of 2 goals per game, which, combined with Benfica’s attacking form, clearly points towards a home win.

The strongest argument for BTTS - No is Benfica’s defence: they keep a clean sheet in 50% of their home matches and limit opponents to an average xG of just 0.72. Vitória average 1.0 goals away from home, but their average has fallen to 0.6 goals over their last five matches, and they have failed to score in 33% of their away games. Benfica have scored 13 goals in their last five matches, compared with Vitória’s 3, so it seems more likely that the visitors will be the side to draw a blank. The main risk to this pick is Vitória’s 67% away BTTS rate; however, the figure stands at 40% for each team across their last five matches. Therefore, I rate the scenario in which at least one team fails to score slightly more highly than both sides finding the net.

Benfica averaged 2.6 goals in their last 5 matches, while Vitória scored just 0.6 goals per game over the same period. The hosts’ attacking potential is reflected in their average home xG of 2.30, while the visitors conceded an average of 2.0 goals away from home. However, the indication for higher goal lines is mixed: Over 2.5 goals landed in 80% of Benfica’s last 5 matches, but in none of their home games included in the data. Therefore, with a projected total of 2.75 goals, the safest pick is Over 1.5 goals, with an estimated probability of 76%.

A half-time draw is the most likely outcome: in their matches so far, Benfica have been level at the break in 75% of their home games, while Vitória have done so in 67% of their away games. The visitors failed to score before half-time in any of these matches, while the hosts did not concede in the first half in any of them. Benfica’s recent form over their last five matches supports a full-time win: they won four, scoring an average of 2.6 goals, while Vitória won one and averaged 0.6 goals. Benfica also won the second half in four of those five matches and scored an average of 1.8 goals after the break, supporting a scenario in which the match is decided after a goalless first half. The alternative is for the hosts to lead at the break, as they did in three of their last five matches, but the high rates of half-time draws make X/1 the slightly stronger pick.