Benjamin Aceval vs 3 de Noviembre: match statistics

Benjamin Aceval sit 4th, while 3 de Noviembre are only 16th; the hosts have won 9 matches this season, whereas the visitors are still without a single victory. At home, Benjamin Aceval average 1.25 goals scored and concede just 0.63, keeping a clean sheet in 50% of their matches, while 3 de Noviembre score only 0.63 goals away from home and lose 88% of their away fixtures. The visitors are also in very poor recent form: over their last five league matches, they have recorded 1 draw and 4 defeats, scoring 3 and conceding 10 goals. The hosts have not been particularly impressive either, with 1 win, 3 draws and 1 defeat in their last five, but their possession advantage (58% versus 48%) and higher average number of shots per match, 11.14 versus 8.25, should enable them to control the game. A draw remains a realistic scenario given Benjamin Aceval’s 38% home draw rate; however, the visitors’ weak attack and zero clean sheets clearly make the hosts the favourites.

The BTTS - Yes pick is primarily supported by the visitors’ very weak defence, as they have failed to keep a clean sheet in any match this season and concede an average of 1.75 goals. Benjamin Aceval also struggle defensively, conceding an average of 1.56 goals, with an xG against of 1.66, so 3 de Noviembre should create chances despite their low average of 0.63 goals scored. The hosts have recorded BTTS in 67% of their matches, clearly above the league average of 56%, while the figure stands at 60% across their last five games. However, the visitors’ attacking form remains the main risk, as they have scored just 3 goals in their last five appearances, averaging 0.6 goals per match. Even so, the combination of the visitors’ zero clean sheets and the high xG figures for both sides—1.24 for the hosts and 1.09 for the visitors over their last five matches—gives a slight edge to the scenario in which both teams score.

The strongest signal is the low potential for four goals: 67% of Benjamin Aceval’s matches and as many as 87% of 3 de Noviembre’s games finished with under 3.5 goals. The visitors average just 0.63 goals per match and have scored only 3 goals in their last five appearances, or 0.6 per game. Benjamin Aceval are not a particularly high-scoring team either, averaging 0.89 goals this season and 1.0 over their last five matches. However, both teams create chances worth approximately 1.18 and 1.16 xG, while the visitors’ weak defense, conceding an average of 2.0 goals in their last five matches, keeps a 2:1 or 1:1 result realistic. The projected 2.49 goals point to a moderately high-scoring game, but the figure remains clearly below the 3.5-goal line.

A draw at half-time is the most logical starting point: Benjamin Aceval were level at the break in 44% of their matches, compared with 50% for 3 de Noviembre, while averaging just 0.44 and 0.25 goals scored before half-time, respectively. In their last five matches, the visitors went into the break level in as many as 80% of cases, while neither team led at half-time even once. After the break, however, the advantage should shift to the hosts, as 3 de Noviembre conceded an average of 1.4 goals in the second half across their last five appearances and failed to win any of those matches. Benjamin Aceval average 0.67 points per match, compared with just 0.13 for the visitors, and current form also favours the hosts: 1.2 points per game in their last five matches versus 0.2 for their opponents. The scenario of a half-time draw followed by a Benjamin Aceval win at the final whistle best combines a cautious start with the visitors' clearly weaker finishing and defensive performance.