Benjamin Aceval vs Fernando de la Mora: match statistics

Benjamin Aceval has a form of 2 wins, 2 draws and 1 loss (wlwdd) in the last 5 matches and has scored 7 goals, whereas Fernando de la Mora have 0 wins, 1 draw and 4 losses (dllll) in their last 5 with only 1 goal. At home the hosts average 11 shots and 6 on target with an average xG of 1.67, while the visitors on the road register just 3 shots, 0 on target and xG 0.65, indicating a clear home advantage in quality of chances. The hosts’ defensive profile looks solid by the numbers — 100% of home matches with a clean sheet and an average of 0 goals conceded per home match — whereas Fernando de la Mora concede on average 2 goals away and have shipped 9 goals in their last 5 matches. Additionally the hosts have 51% possession versus 41% for the visitors and average 1.6 points in the last 5 matches compared to 0.2 for their opponents, indicating better control and form. Considering the xG difference (1.67 vs 0.65), the superiority in shots (11 vs 3) and the visitors’ goal-scoring issues (0 goals away and 100% of away matches without scoring), I forecast a home win.

The data strongly favors No BTTS: Fernando de la Mora has a seasonal goals average of 0.0 (0 goals this season) and only 1 goal in the last 5 matches (0.2 per match). Benjamin Aceval possesses a markedly better attack — xG 1.78 seasonally and 1.49 in the last 5, with 7 goals in the last 5 (1.4 average) — so the hosts are most likely to score. The visitors have a very weak offense: xG 0.65, averaging 3 shots per match and 0 on target, while conceding roughly 1.8–2.0 goals per match (9 conceded in the last 5), which lowers the chance they will reply with a goal. Additionally, the seasonal BTTS rates for both teams are 0%, while the league BTTS average is 46%, indicating these teams rarely play matches where both score this season. Considering the above numbers I assess BTTS probability at about 25% and No BTTS at 75%, therefore I recommend selecting "No" as the strongest signal.

xG and defensive averages analysis indicates a combined expected goal total of approximately 2.98: Benjamin Aceval has an attacking xG of 1.78 versus 0.65 for Fernando de la Mora, while the away defense concedes an xG against of 1.98, yielding calculated expected goals of 1.88 for the home side and 1.10 for the visitors. The hosts average 14.5 shots per match with 3.5 on target, whereas the visitors register only 3.0 shots and 0.0 on target, increasing the likelihood of chances for Benjamin (14.5 vs 3.0; 3.5 vs 0.0). In the last 5 matches Benjamin scored 7 goals (1.4 per match) and Fernando only 1 (0.2 per match); the hosts also had 60% of games over 2.5 in that period versus 20% for the visitors. With an expected 2.98 goals (above the league average of 2.42) the distribution suggests roughly an 80% probability for Over 1.5, ~57% for Over 2.5 and ~35% for Over 3.5; therefore the strongest data-driven signal is a play on Over 1.5.

I forecast a Half-Time draw and a Home win (X/1). Both teams drew at the break in 60% of their last five matches, increasing the likelihood of a stalemate after 45 minutes. The home side holds a clear offensive advantage: xG 1.78 versus 0.65, an average of 14.5 shots versus 3.0 and 3.5 shots on target versus 0.0 for the visitors, so they are more likely to take the initiative after half-time. Additionally, the hosts have won 40% of their last five matches compared to 0% for the away team, and over their last five fixtures the home team conceded an average of 1.0 goals versus 1.8 for the visitors, which supports a final victory for the hosts. Therefore I assign the highest probability to the X/1 scenario (38%), followed by X/X (25%) and 1/1 (15%).