Benjamin Aceval vs Tacuary: match statistics

Benjamin Aceval appears to be the favorite: at home they have a 50% win rate, 75% of matches with a clean sheet and concede on average only 0.25 goals per game, while in the last 5 fixtures they scored 10 goals and won 4. Tacuary has yet to record a win this season (0 wins), with 6 draws and 4 losses; away they register as many as 80% draws and concede on average 1.4 goals per game with only 20% clean sheets. In attack the hosts generate an average xG of 1.66 in home matches with 13.5 shots and 3.75 on target per game (conversion 6%), whereas the visitors have xG 1.23 away, 8 shots and 4 on target with a 13% conversion. Benjamin’s key advantage is form and defense — 2.4 points per game in the last 5 matches versus the visitors’ 0.8 points, and a clear difference in average goals conceded (0.25 vs 1.4). Considering the hosts’ defensive solidity and Tacuary’s lack of wins, I expect a Benjamin Aceval victory, although the high rate of away draws for the visitors (80%) leaves a realistic chance of a split of points.

Both teams have seasonal BTTS at 60%, and in the last 5 matches Tacuary recorded BTTS 80% versus Benjamin Aceval’s 60%, which already indicates a strong Goal/Goal signal. The hosts have not kept a single clean sheet this season (0% clean sheets), and the average goals conceded is 1.8 for Benjamin and 1.4 for Tacuary, suggesting high susceptibility to conceding. xG shows Benjamin generates 1.07 xG on average, Tacuary 1.23 xG, while xG against are 1.66 and 1.51 respectively, so both teams create and concede over 1 expected goal per game. Tacuary registers more shots on target (4.0 vs 2.6) and more shots overall (8.0 vs 7.0), and in the last 5 matches Benjamin scored 10 goals and conceded 6 (2.0 and 1.2 per game), which favors an exchange of goals. Considering both teams’ 60% BTTS, the visitors’ 80% BTTS in the last 5 matches and the hosts’ 0% clean sheets, I assess BTTS probability at 70% vs 30% and recommend a 'BTTS - Yes' bet.

Based on xG I calculated expected goals of 1.29 for Benjamin Aceval and 1.45 for Tacuary (total 2.74), computed as the average of offensive xG and opponent xG: 1.07 vs 1.51 and 1.23 vs 1.66. A Poisson distribution with lambda=2.74 yields approximately a 76% probability of Over 1.5 goals and about 52% for Over 2.5 goals, which forms the model’s baseline. Seasonal metrics confirm an offensive tendency: both teams have seasonOver15Percentage 80% and seasonBTTSPercentage 60%, and in the last 5 matches Over 2.5 occurred 60% for the home side and 80% for the away side. Additionally, the home team concedes on average 1.8 goals per match, the away team 1.4, and the shots on target 2.6 vs 4.0 indicate a real capacity to create chances, which reduces the risk of Under 1.5. Therefore I recommend a bet on Over 1.5 (strongest signal) with an estimated probability of ~76%; Over 2.5 has moderate value (~63%), while Over 3.5 appears unlikely (~30%).

Benjamin Aceval is clearly in superior form: in the last 5 matches they have 4 wins and 1 loss (80% win rate) and score an average of 2.0 goals per match over that period. Tacuary has not won any of their last five fixtures (0% wins) and averages only 0.8 points per match this season, which limits their chances of maintaining a favorable result. At half-time the home side score on average 0.6 goals, while the visitors only 0.2, so the first half is often low-scoring or level, and the hosts lead at the break in around 40% of matches. The key signal is the second half: Benjamin have averaged 1.8 goals after the break in their last 5 matches compared to 0.8 for Tacuary, and 100% of the home wins in that run were decided after the break, therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home victory after 90 minutes (X/1). I assign this scenario a 32% probability; overall I assess the chances as: home win after 90 minutes ~58%, draw 30%, away win 12%.