Beşiktaş vs Çorum Belediyespor: match statistics

Beşiktaş enter the match after winning 4 of their last 5 games, with a 6:1 goal difference during that period, while Çorum Belediyespor have scored 5 goals in their five matches and suffered 2 defeats. The hosts won their only home game so far, kept a clean sheet and limited their opponents to just 0.47 xG. Their attack averages 2.15 xG, 19 shots and 5 shots on target per match, clearly exceeding the visitors’ away figures of 0.88 xG, 8 shots and 3 shots on target. Çorum Belediyespor concede an average of 2 goals away from home and allow opponents 3.9 xG, so Beşiktaş should hold a significant advantage in chance quality. The visitors can pose a threat, having scored 2 goals in their only away game, but their average 36% possession will make it difficult to withstand the hosts’ pressure.

The stronger signal points to BTTS - No, as Beşiktaş have conceded an average of just 0.2 goals across their last 5 matches and kept a clean sheet in 4 of those games. Çorum Belediyespor averaged 1.0 goal scored during this period, but their xG stood at 1.76, clearly below Beşiktaş's 2.19, while the home side's opponents have a very solid defence. Beşiktaş average 16 shots per match, compared with just 8 for the visitors, while the season xG against the home side is only 0.56, versus 3.90 against Çorum. Although the visitors scored in their only match of the season and have a 100% BTTS rate in this small sample, their last 5 matches produced BTTS in only 20% of cases. The most likely scenario is therefore that Beşiktaş score, but Çorum Belediyespor fail to respond.

Beşiktaş have conceded just 1 goal in their last five matches, averaging 0.2 per game, while Çorum have scored an average of 1.0 goal during this period. The combined goal output from both teams’ last five appearances stands at 1.4 goals per Beşiktaş match and 1.8 goals per Çorum match, with only 20% of games finishing Over 2.5 goals for each side. However, the hosts are creating plenty of chances, as reflected by an xG of 2.19 across their last five matches compared with 1.53 for the visitors, meaning the expected total should not fall below two goals. At the same time, Beşiktaş’s defensive strength and the low percentage of matches finishing Over 2.5 goals limit the prospects of an open game, making Under 3.5 goals the most probable outcome.

Beşiktaş is showing significantly better current form: they have won 4 of their last 5 matches, scoring an average of 1.2 goals and conceding just 0.2. The hosts were leading at the break in 60% of those games, scored an average of 0.8 goals before half-time, and did not concede a single goal in that phase. Çorum Belediyespor won 40% of their last five matches, but were leading at half-time in only 25% of them, averaging just 0.25 goals scored in the first half. Beşiktaş's advantage is also supported by the quality of chances created: their average xG stands at 1.83 compared with 0.88 for the visitors, who allow opponents as much as 3.90 xG. The most likely scenario is therefore for the hosts to lead at the break and maintain their advantage until the final whistle.