Beşiktaş vs Trabzonspor: match statistics

Beşiktaş holds an advantage in chance creation — home xG averages 2.01 versus 1.52 for Trabzonspor, and average shots on target per match are 7.06 vs 4.94. In the last 5 fixtures the home side scored 6 and conceded 3 (2 wins, 1 draw, 2 losses), yielding 1.4 points per game, while the visitors have 4 goals and 5 conceded with 0 wins, 4 draws and 1 loss, averaging 0.8 points per game. The home defence looks marginally stronger statistically — Beşiktaş concedes 1.13 goals on average at home, while Trabzonspor concedes 1.25 on the road, with the home goal difference at +11. The visitors display a higher conversion rate (13% vs 10% for the hosts), but they also allow more high-quality opportunities to opponents (away xG against 1.54 vs home 1.15). Based on the higher xG (+0.49), greater number of shots on target and better recent 5-game form, I give Beşiktaş the higher probability.

Both teams have a seasonal BTTS rate of 69% (Beşiktaş 69%, Trabzonspor 69%), well above the league average of 55%, indicating a propensity for mutual scoring. Seasonal goals averages are 1.81 for Beşiktaş and 1.88 for Trabzonspor with average goals conceded 0.94 and 1.25 respectively, so both sides regularly score and concede. In terms of xG, Beşiktaş has an attacking xG of 1.76 versus opponents' xG 1.54, while Trabzonspor has attacking xG 1.52 versus hosts' xG 1.31, which supports realistic chances of goals from both teams. A counterpoint is recent form over the last 5 matches: Beşiktaş shows BTTS only 20% and concedes on average 0.6 goals, whereas Trabzonspor has BTTS 80% and concedes 1.0, meaning the hosts' recent improved defense reduces but does not eliminate the likelihood of both teams scoring. Considering both teams' season-long 69% BTTS and xG indicators, I assess 70% for 'yes' and 30% for 'no' and recommend a bet on BTTS = Yes.

Both teams have a high over 1.5 rate this season: Beşiktaş 81% and Trabzonspor 75%, while BTTS is 69% for both sides, indicating frequent goals at both ends. xG metrics show the hosts with xG_for 1.76 against the opponents' xG_against 1.54, yielding expected home goals around 1.65; the visitors have xG_for 1.52 against the hosts' xG_against 1.31, yielding expected away goals around 1.42, totaling approximately 3.07 goals. With an average of 3.07, the model gives roughly an 81% probability for Over 1.5, about 59% for Over 2.5 and about 37% for Over 3.5, so the strongest signal is Over 1.5. Additionally, Beşiktaş averages 16.31 shots (5.5 on target) and Trabzonspor 14.19 (4.94 on target) with conversion rates of 11% and 13%, which supports the match’s goal potential. Therefore I recommend backing Over on the 1.5 line.

Form and results from the last five matches strongly argue for a draw: the visitors have not won (0% wins) and recorded 80% draws, while the hosts in that period won 40% and drew 20%. Additionally, both teams were level at the break in 60% of cases (last five matches for both – 60%), and the hosts led at the break in 2 of the last 5 (40%), with average first-half goals 0.6 for the hosts and 0.0 for the visitors. Season-long numbers show Besiktas’ creative edge: xG 1.76 versus 1.52 and 5.5 shots on target against Trabzonspor’s 4.94, although the visitors’ finishing is better (13% vs 11%), which reduces the hosts’ dominance. The hosts are more active immediately after half-time (10 goals in minutes 46–60 vs 5 for the visitors), whereas the visitors score more often late on (9 goals in minutes 76–90 vs 4 for the hosts), increasing the likelihood of the draw holding to full time. As a result, the strongest signal is X/X (draw at Half-Time/Full-Time) – a scenario consistent with 60% halftime draws in the last five and 80% draws for the visitors over the same period.