BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava: match statistics
BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
BFC Daugavpils played FS Jelgava in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 16 April 2026. Final score: 1:0.
Current form
BFC Daugavpils: 3-0-2, 1.80 points/match. FS Jelgava: 0-2-3, 0.40 points/match.
Goal statistics
BFC Daugavpils scores 1.67 and concedes 2.00 goals per match. FS Jelgava scores 0.67 and concedes 2.17. League average: 2.83 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: BFC Daugavpils 67%, FS Jelgava 50%. Over 2.5: BFC Daugavpils 67%, FS Jelgava 33%. League level: BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 50%.
xG, shots and style
BFC Daugavpils has higher xG: 1.46 vs 1.33. BFC Daugavpils: 11.5 shots per match, FS Jelgava: 10.3.
Match halves
BFC Daugavpils: half-time lead 50%, second-half goals 0.83. FS Jelgava: half-time lead 33%, second-half goals 0.17.
Goals by minute
BFC Daugavpils: 46-60 (4 goals). FS Jelgava: 0-15 (1 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.83 goals per match, BTTS 63%, Over 2.5 50%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 2-1-1. Average goals 2.00, BTTS 25%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
BFC Daugavpils holds a clear advantage in key home metrics: home average xG is 1.80 versus away xG of 1.56, and home goals per game are 1.33 compared to FS Jelgava’s 1.00 on the road. The hosts average 6.67 shots on target and 14.33 shots per game at home with a conversion rate of 9%, while Jelgava record 4.0 shots on target and 13 shots with an 8% conversion—reflected in goals: BFC have scored 10 goals in the last 5 matches versus just 2 by the visitors. Defensively BFC also perform better in season home stats—conceding 0.67 goals per game and keeping 33% clean sheets, whereas Jelgava concede 1.00 on the road and have 0% clean sheets. Form corroborates the hosts’ edge: BFC’s last 5 results show 'llwww', 3 wins and an average of 1.8 points per game, while Jelgava average only 0.4 points and have not won in that span. Given the greater volume of chances, higher xG and lower goals conceded at home (the visitors have conceded 12 goals in their last 5 matches), I predict a home win—probabilities: 67% home, 20% draw, 13% away.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
I assign an 80% probability to BTTS - Yes and 20% to No. FS Jelgava has a 100% BTTS rate away this season, and BTTS occurs in 63% of their league matches, indicating a strong trend toward both teams scoring. BFC Daugavpils concedes an average of 2.75 goals at home and has had BTTS in 80% of their last 5 matches (4/5); the hosts scored 10 goals in their last 5 (avg. 2.0), while FS Jelgava scored 2 goals in their last 5 (avg. 0.4), but the visitors have conceded 13 goals this season. Counterarguments include the hosts’ seasonal 0.5 goals at home and the hosts’ seasonal BTTS of 25% and a drop in the visitors’ BTTS to 40% in the last 5; however, xG shows similar values (home xG_against 1.6 vs away xG_for 1.56) and both teams have 0% clean sheets, which reduces the likelihood of a no-goal outcome. Overall the Yes signal is stronger due to the hosts’ weak defense, the visitors’ 100% away BTTS and the league-level 63% BTTS.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG-and-form-based model forecasts a total of 3.10 expected goals: 1.52 for BFC Daugavpils and 1.58 for FS Jelgava (sum 3.10). From a Poisson distribution with λ=3.10 there is roughly an 82% chance of Over 1.5 goals, 60% for Over 2.5 and 38% for Over 3.5; the 3.10 total is also above the league average of 2.83, which strengthens the signal for the Over market. In the last 5 matches Daugavpils scored 10 goals (2.0 per match) and conceded 11 (2.2 per match), and 80% of their last 5 matches finished Over 2.5 goals, indicating high-scoring games. Jelgava is averaging 1.0 goals per match this season with xG_for 1.56, while Daugavpils concedes 2.75 goals on average this season, further supporting goal-related outcomes. Based on this, I recommend betting Over 2.5 as the strongest signal: the model projects 3.10 goals and about a 60% probability of exceeding that line.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The data reveal a clear pattern: FS Jelgava led at half-time in 100% of their matches (leadingAtHTPercentage_away = 100.0), while BFC Daugavpils trailed at the break in 75% of cases (trailingAtHTPercentage_home = 75.0). Despite this, the visitors finish matches level 100% of the time (drawPercentage_away = 100.0), indicating Jelgava’s leads are frequently lost after the break. Offensive metrics support this thesis: average xG is 1.56 for the away side versus 1.21 for the home side (xg_for_avg_away = 1.56 vs xg_for_avg_home = 1.21), but the visitors concede higher xG (xg_against_avg_away = 1.83), which explains the turnover of leads. The hosts, however, display better form in the last five matches ('llwww') and average 2.0 goals in their last five versus 0.4 for Jelgava (last5_seasonScoredAVG_overall_home = 2.0 vs away = 0.4), so the most likely scenario is the away team leading at half-time and a draw after 90 minutes, hence the selection of 2/X as the primary pick (45%).
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| BFC Daugavpils | FS Jelgava | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 49% | 32% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.13 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.20 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
BFC Daugavpils is 350% better for: last-5 form.
1.8 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils · 0.4 pts / match - FS Jelgava
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
BFC Daugavpils is 149% better for: goals scored per match.
1.67 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 0.67 goals / match - FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils is 8% better for: goals conceded per match.
2 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 2.17 goals / match - FS Jelgava
BFC Daugavpils scores in 83% of matches (5 of 6 matches), while FS Jelgava keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 6 matches).
FS Jelgava scores in 50% of matches (3 of 6 matches), while BFC Daugavpils keeps a clean sheet in 17% (1 of 6 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - BFC Daugavpils
Over / Under - FS Jelgava
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
BFC Daugavpils is 56% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.83 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1.17 pts / match - FS Jelgava
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
BFC Daugavpils - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 50% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 1.0 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
FS Jelgava - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 33% of matches and wins 17%. Sometimes loses the lead after half-time.
Concedes 0.5 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.0 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 2.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 20% |
| No goal | 20% | 40% |
| Goal difference | +2 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.20 | 0.40 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.6 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 1.6 |
| 1 goal | 100% | 60% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 40% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 100% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -8 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (4 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 0-15 (1 goal). Concedes most in 76-90 (6). Late-goal balance (76-90): -6 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
BFC Daugavpils
FS Jelgava
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| BFC Daugavpils | Liga | FS Jelgava | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.67 | 2.83 | • 2.83 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 67% | 63% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 67% | 50% | ▼ 33% |
| Clean sheets | • 17% | 18% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 83% | 87% | ▲ 100% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 83% | ▼ 67% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): BFC Daugavpils 2 - 1 - 1 FS Jelgava. Average goals 2.00, both teams scored in 25% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
The Virsliga match finished BFC Daugavpils 1:0 FS Jelgava. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between BFC Daugavpils and FS Jelgava?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches BFC Daugavpils won 2, FS Jelgava won 1 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.00 goals, with both teams scoring in 25% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
BFC Daugavpils score 1.67 goals per game on average and FS Jelgava 0.67. The Virsliga average is 2.83 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 50% of games. Both teams score in 67% of BFC Daugavpils's matches and 50% of FS Jelgava's.
What form are BFC Daugavpils and FS Jelgava in?
Over the last 5 games BFC Daugavpils have a 3-0-2 record (1.80 points per game) and FS Jelgava 0-2-3 (0.40 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for BFC Daugavpils vs FS Jelgava?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.