BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United: match statistics
BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
BFC Daugavpils played Ogre United in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 7 April 2026. Final score: 2:1.
Current form
BFC Daugavpils: 1-0-3, 0.75 points/match. Ogre United: 0-1-3, 0.25 points/match.
Goal statistics
BFC Daugavpils scores 1.25 and concedes 2.25 goals per match. Ogre United scores 0.50 and concedes 1.50. League average: 2.70 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: BFC Daugavpils 50%, Ogre United 50%. Over 2.5: BFC Daugavpils 50%, Ogre United 25%. League level: BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 45%.
xG, shots and style
BFC Daugavpils has higher xG: 1.17 vs 0.89. BFC Daugavpils: 10.0 shots per match, Ogre United: 7.8.
Match halves
BFC Daugavpils: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.75. Ogre United: half-time lead 0%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
BFC Daugavpils: 46-60 (3 goals). Ogre United: 46-60 (2 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.70 goals per match, BTTS 55%, Over 2.5 45%.
Head-to-head
No aligned head-to-head sample is available in the database.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
BFC Daugavpils has a clear advantage in chance creation at home: on average 12.5 shots and 4 on target per match with xG 1.44, while Ogre United away records only 1 shot on average, 0 on target and xG 0.33. The visitors have yet to score away (goals average 0, FTS 100%) and concede 2.0 goals per away match on average with xG against 2.48, indicating both defensive weakness and lack of offensive quality. The hosts score 1.0 goal per home match, concede only 0.5 and keep 50% clean sheets, although over the last 5 matches overall they have just 1 win and conceded 12 goals (2.4 per match), signalling instability. Given the xG differential (1.44 vs 0.33), the superiority in shots and the hosts' 50% clean sheets versus 0% for the visitors, a BFC win is more likely, while exercising caution due to the poorer run in the last five games.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistics indicate a moderately higher probability of BTTS: BFC Daugavpils has a seasonal BTTS of 67% and 60% in the last 5 matches, while Ogre United has 0% for the season and 40% in the last 5, with the league BTTS rate at 55%. BFC generates significantly more quality chances (xG 1.08 vs 0.33 for Ogre), averaging 10 shots and 1.67 on target per match versus 1 shot and 0 on target for the visitors, suggesting the hosts will predominantly attack. Even so, BFC’s defense is vulnerable — they concede 1.33 goals per match this season (9 total) and as many as 2.4 goals in the last 5 matches (12 conceded), while Ogre averages 0.6 goals in their last 5, so the visitors have a real, albeit limited, chance to score. Additionally, a seasonal 0% clean sheets rate for both teams indicates neither side frequently keeps a clean sheet. As a result I project BTTS (Goal/Goal) as more likely and price the chances at 65% for 'BTTS - Yes' versus 35% for 'No Goal'.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
xG-based calculation: home attack xG = 1.08, away defense concedes on average xG = 2.48, so (1.08+2.48)/2 = 1.78 expected goals for BFC; similarly away attack xG = 0.33 versus home defense xG = 1.65 -> (0.33+1.65)/2 = 0.99 for Ogre, total = 2.77. Although seasonally BFC scores only 0.67 goals and Ogre statistically 0.0, the gap between xG and actual goals (1.08 vs 0.67) and shot volume 10.0 vs 1.0 and shots on target 1.67 vs 0.0 indicate a creative advantage for the hosts. Historically Over 1.5 occurred in 67% of BFC matches and in 100% of Ogre matches, so Over 1.5 is the strongest signal (I assess 88% probability for Over 1.5). The 2.5 line is more balanced: seasonally Over 2.5 for the home side 33% and for the away side 0%, but in the last 5 matches BFC Over 2.5 = 60% and Ogre = 20%, hence a moderate 60% for Over 2.5. Over 3.5 is virtually absent seasonally (0% for both teams), I rate it at 12%, therefore I recommend betting Over 1.5 as the strongest and least risky selection.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Home side clearly dominate in chance creation: home xG 1.08 versus 0.33 for the visitors, average shots 10.0 versus 1.0 and average shots on target 1.67 versus 0.0. Visitors effectively do not score away (seasonScoredAVG_away = 0.0, ShotsOnTargetAVG_away = 0.0), which diminishes their chances of scoring before the break. After the break the picture shifts in BFC’s favor — they scored 2 goals in minutes 46–60 (goals_scored_min_46_to_60_home = 2.0), have 100% of matches with at least one second-half goal (over05_2hg_percentage_home = 100.0) and won 67% of their second halves (wins_2hg_percentage_home = 67.0). Therefore the most likely scenario is a draw at half-time and a home win at full-time (X/1), based on the xG advantage 1.08 vs 0.33 and the visitors’ season-long 0.0 goals scored.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| BFC Daugavpils | Ogre United | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 16% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.11 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.33 | 0.40 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
BFC Daugavpils is 200% better for: last-5 form.
0.75 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils · 0.25 pts / match - Ogre United
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
BFC Daugavpils is 150% better for: goals scored per match.
1.25 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 0.5 goals / match - Ogre United
Ogre United is 50% better for: goals conceded per match.
2.25 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1.5 goals / match - Ogre United
BFC Daugavpils scores in 75% of matches (3 of 4 matches), while Ogre United keeps a clean sheet in 0% (0 of 4 matches).
Ogre United scores in 50% of matches (2 of 4 matches), while BFC Daugavpils keeps a clean sheet in 25% (1 of 4 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - BFC Daugavpils
Over / Under - Ogre United
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
BFC Daugavpils is 150% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.25 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils · 0.5 pts / match - Ogre United
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
BFC Daugavpils - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 25%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.8 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Ogre United - second-half results
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.25 | 1.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.5 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.5 |
| Average goals in match | 1.3 | 2.3 |
| 1 goal | 75% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 50% | 50% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 50% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 25% |
| No goal | 50% | 50% |
| Goal difference | -1 | -3 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.50 | 1.50 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.0 | 0.5 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.3 |
| 1 goal | 50% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 25% | 25% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 50% | 50% |
| No goal | 100% | 50% |
| Goal difference | -3 | -1 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (3 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (4). Late-goal balance (76-90): -1 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (2 goals). Concedes most in 76-90 (2). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
BFC Daugavpils
Ogre United
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| BFC Daugavpils | Liga | Ogre United | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.50 | 2.70 | ▼ 2.00 |
| Both teams scored | ▼ 50% | 55% | ▼ 50% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▲ 50% | 45% | ▼ 25% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 25% | 23% | ▼ 0% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 75% | 85% | ▼ 50% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 80% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
FAQ
What was the result of BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United?
The Virsliga match finished BFC Daugavpils 2:1 Ogre United. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What do the goal statistics show before BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United?
BFC Daugavpils score 1.25 goals per game on average and Ogre United 0.50. The Virsliga average is 2.70 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 45% of games. Both teams score in 50% of BFC Daugavpils's matches and 50% of Ogre United's.
What form are BFC Daugavpils and Ogre United in?
Over the last 5 games BFC Daugavpils have a 1-0-3 record (0.75 points per game) and Ogre United 0-1-3 (0.25 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for BFC Daugavpils vs Ogre United?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.