BFC Daugavpils vs Riga: match statistics
BFC Daugavpils vs Riga: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
BFC Daugavpils played Riga in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 8 May 2026. Final score: 1:3.
Current form
BFC Daugavpils: 2-2-1, 1.60 points/match. Riga: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match.
Goal statistics
BFC Daugavpils scores 1.30 and concedes 1.50 goals per match. Riga scores 3.30 and concedes 1.20. League average: 2.98 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: BFC Daugavpils 60%, Riga 60%. Over 2.5: BFC Daugavpils 40%, Riga 90%. League level: BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
Riga has higher xG: 2.03 vs 1.52. BFC Daugavpils: 12.4 shots per match, Riga: 16.9.
Match halves
BFC Daugavpils: half-time lead 30%, second-half goals 0.80. Riga: half-time lead 60%, second-half goals 1.70.
Goals by minute
BFC Daugavpils: 46-60 (7 goals). Riga: 31-45+ (8 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.98 goals per match, BTTS 58%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 5 previous H2H matches were available: 1-1-3. Average goals 2.60, BTTS 60%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
I back the away win (Riga). The primary argument is offensive superiority: Riga averages 3.5 goals on the road (15 goals in the last 5 matches) versus the hosts' 1.0 goals at home (6 goals in the last 5). The visitors have significantly better finishing — conversion around 23% vs 7% for BFC — and average 15.17 shots and 6.67 on target per away match compared to the hosts' 13.4 shots and 5.6 on target. Riga collects an average of 2.6 points in the last 5 matches, BFC 1.6, with the visitors having 0% matches without a goal away vs 40% for the hosts; xG shows a moderate advantage 1.88 vs 1.71, indicating the gap stems from finishing efficiency. BFC’s only notable edge is lower average turnovers at the stadium (0.6 vs 1.17), but that does not offset the offensive disparity, so I favor Riga.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Both teams show strong offensive potential: BFC Daugavpils averages 3.0 goals per match (xG 2.27), while Riga averages 3.5 goals (xG 1.88), indicating both sides regularly create dangerous chances. Riga is particularly efficient – 23% shot conversion, season BTTS at 67% and only 33% clean sheets, meaning they concede in 67% of matches. The hosts have 50% clean sheets this season and a season BTTS of 50%, but in the last 5 matches BFC scored 6 and conceded 5 (avg 1.2 and 1.0), whereas Riga in their last 5 scored 15 and conceded 4 (avg 3.0 and 0.8), showing both teams can both score and concede. Additionally, the league features a high BTTS share (59%) and an average of 2.82 goals per match, with home matches exceeding 2.5 goals in 75% of cases and away matches in 100%, which favors a both-teams-to-score scenario. Based on this data, the strongest signal supports the yes (BTTS - Yes) variant and I assess its probability at 70%, versus 30% for no (No Goal).
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The xG model projects 1.69 goals for the home side (xG 2.27 vs Riga defense 1.10) and 1.33 for the away side (xG 1.88 vs Daugavpils defense 0.79), totaling ≈3.02 goals. Season metrics show a strong bias toward goals: Over 1.5 at 75% (Daugavpils) and 100% (Riga), and Over 2.5 at 75% and 100% respectively, supporting a high probability of exceeding both 1.5 and 2.5. In the last 5 matches Daugavpils averages 1.2 goals, Riga 3.0 (4.2 combined), but Daugavpils had only 20% Over 2.5 in their last 5, which reduces confidence in extremely high scores. Riga is also more efficient with chances (conversion rate 23% vs 15%) and has 33 goals scored this season versus the home side’s 13, therefore I back the Over on the 2.5 line as the strongest signal from the data.
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
The most likely scenario is 2/2 (Riga leads at the break and wins). In the last 5 matches Riga led at half-time in 60% of games and scored 12 goals before the break, while BFC Daugavpils scored only 1 first-half goal in the same period and led at the break in 20% of cases. Riga won 80% of their last 5 matches versus 40% for the hosts, and in second halves Riga average 1.83 goals and perform better after the break (2.33) than the hosts, who register 1.5 and 1.75 in those metrics; this suggests an advantage for the visitors after the break. Although the hosts’ xG is higher (2.27 vs 1.88), Riga’s shot conversion is 23% versus the hosts’ 15%, and Riga have 15 goals scored before half-time this season compared to the hosts’ 7, which supports their ability to gain and maintain a lead; therefore the highest weight is given to 2/2 (40%), with X/2 (19%) and 2/X (8%) as the next realistic scenarios.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| BFC Daugavpils | Riga | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 39% | 38% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.12 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.27 | 0.51 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
Riga is 63% better for: last-5 form.
1.6 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils · 2.6 pts / match - Riga
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
Riga is 154% better for: goals scored per match.
1.3 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 3.3 goals / match - Riga
Riga is 25% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.5 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1.2 goals / match - Riga
BFC Daugavpils scores in 80% of matches (8 of 10 matches), while Riga keeps a clean sheet in 40% (4 of 10 matches).
Riga scores in 100% of matches (10 of 10 matches), while BFC Daugavpils keeps a clean sheet in 20% (2 of 10 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - BFC Daugavpils
Over / Under - Riga
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
Riga is 33% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.5 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils · 2 pts / match - Riga
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
BFC Daugavpils - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 30% of matches and wins 40%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.9 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Riga - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 60% of matches and wins 70%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.40 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.2 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 1.0 |
| Average goals in match | 0.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 20% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 20% |
| No goal | 80% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | 0 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.00 | 2.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 1.8 | 1.2 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| Average goals in match | 2.4 | 1.4 |
| 1 goal | 80% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 80% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 60% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 80% |
| No goal | 20% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +6 | +5 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (7 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 31-45 (8 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (3). Late-goal balance (76-90): +6 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
BFC Daugavpils
Riga
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| BFC Daugavpils | Liga | Riga | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.80 | 2.98 | ▲ 4.50 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 60% | 58% | ▲ 60% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 40% | 51% | ▲ 90% |
| Clean sheets | • 20% | 21% | ▲ 40% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 50% | 74% | ▲ 90% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 87% | ▲ 90% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): BFC Daugavpils 1 - 1 - 3 Riga. Average goals 2.60, both teams scored in 60% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
The Virsliga match finished BFC Daugavpils 1:3 Riga. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between BFC Daugavpils and Riga?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches BFC Daugavpils won 1, Riga won 3 and 1 ended level. These games averaged 2.60 goals, with both teams scoring in 60% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
BFC Daugavpils score 1.30 goals per game on average and Riga 3.30. The Virsliga average is 2.98 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 60% of BFC Daugavpils's matches and 60% of Riga's.
What form are BFC Daugavpils and Riga in?
Over the last 5 games BFC Daugavpils have a 2-2-1 record (1.60 points per game) and Riga 4-1-0 (2.60 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for BFC Daugavpils vs Riga?
This page shows the full statistical context — form, head-to-head, goals, BTTS and Over/Under. The tip, value assessment and full reasoning are in the NoFluffPicks app.