BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova: match statistics
BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
BFC Daugavpils played Super Nova in Virsliga (Latvia). The match was played on 27 April 2026. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
BFC Daugavpils: 4-1-0, 2.60 points/match. Super Nova: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
BFC Daugavpils scores 1.50 and concedes 1.63 goals per match. Super Nova scores 1.13 and concedes 1.63. League average: 2.80 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: BFC Daugavpils 63%, Super Nova 75%. Over 2.5: BFC Daugavpils 50%, Super Nova 63%. League level: BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 51%.
xG, shots and style
BFC Daugavpils has higher xG: 1.51 vs 1.19. BFC Daugavpils: 12.3 shots per match, Super Nova: 9.0.
Match halves
BFC Daugavpils: half-time lead 38%, second-half goals 0.88. Super Nova: half-time lead 25%, second-half goals 0.50.
Goals by minute
BFC Daugavpils: 46-60 (6 goals). Super Nova: 16-30 (3 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.80 goals per match, BTTS 61%, Over 2.5 51%.
Head-to-head
Before this fixture, 4 previous H2H matches were available: 0-3-1. Average goals 3.25, BTTS 100%.
Archived pre-match analysis
This analysis was prepared before kick-off. The conclusions use only information available before the match and do not include the final result or post-match statistics.
General match analysis
BFC Daugavpils holds a clear form advantage: in the last 5 matches they have 4 wins and 1 draw (wwwwd), scoring 9 goals and conceding 4, which corresponds to an average of 2.6 points per game over that period. At home the hosts average 14.5 shots with 6.25 on target, have an average xG of 1.81 per match, concede only 0.5 goals and keep a clean sheet in 50% of home fixtures. Super Nova away averages 8.8 shots with 3.8 on target, has an xG of 1.2 and concedes on average 1.2 goals; in their last 5 matches the visitors scored 5 and conceded 9, achieving only 1.2 points per game. Despite higher shot conversion for the visitors (14% vs 9% for the hosts), lower possession (42% vs 53%) and substantially fewer created chances (avg. 3.8 on-target and 8.8 shots for the visitors vs 6.25 on-target and 14.5 shots for the hosts) favor BFC. Considering the xG advantage (1.81 vs 1.2), better home defense (0.5 vs 1.2) and form (avg. 2.6 points per game vs 1.2), I forecast a home win; I assess the probabilities at 68% for BFC, 18% for a draw and 14% for Super Nova.
View the statistical overviewBTTS - will both teams score?
Statistical signals favor BTTS - Yes. BFC Daugavpils has a 100% season BTTS rate at home (both teams scored in all home matches), while Super Nova’s season BTTS is 60% and the league average is 60% BTTS. The hosts concede 2.33 goals per game on the season, and the visitors have conceded 1.8 goals on average in their last 5 matches, which increases the likelihood of goals from both sides. xG shows the hosts generate 1.16 xG versus the 1.46 xG typically conceded by Super Nova opponents; conversely Super Nova records 1.2 xG against the 1.85 xG usually allowed to the hosts’ opponents — both sides therefore have realistic scoring opportunities. Additionally, the hosts have 0% clean sheets at home, the visitors 20%, and in the last 5 matches Daugavpils scored 9 goals (1.8 per game) while Super Nova conceded 9 goals (1.8 per game), so I rate BTTS - Yes at 75%.
View BTTS statisticsOver/Under - goals analysis
The model based on xG and match statistics indicates a clear edge on the Over 1.5 market; calculated expected goals are 1.31 for the home team and 1.53 for the away team (total 2.84), which translates to ~78% probability of Over 1.5. This season the home side have 100% of matches exceeding 1.5 goals, while Super Nova have 80%; the share of matches in which both teams scored at least one goal is 100% and 60% respectively, further increasing the likelihood of at least two goals. xG analysis shows: home xG for is 1.16 versus the average xG conceded by the visitors 1.46 (≈1.31 expected goals for the homes), whereas the visitors have an attacking xG of 1.20 versus the average xG conceded by the homes 1.85 (≈1.53 expected goals for the guests). Additionally, the home team in their last 5 matches averaged 1.8 goals with xG 1.8 and are in good form (4 wins, 1 draw), while the visitors averaged 1.0 goals and conceded 9 goals in those 5 matches. I pick Over 1.5 as the strongest signal; Over 2.5 has a moderate probability (~54%), and Over 3.5 is unlikely (~32%).
View Over/Under statisticsHT/FT - half-time and full-time scenario
Super Nova are the favorites: they have a 60% win rate this season versus 0% for BFC Daugavpils and average 1.8 points per match compared to 0.33 points for the hosts. In the first half the hosts score on average 0.33 goals and concede 2.0, while the visitors score 0.8 and concede 0.2, and the visitors average 1.6 points at half-time versus 0.0 for the hosts — a strong signal for the visitors to lead at the break. xG is similar (1.16 for the hosts vs 1.20 for the visitors), but the hosts allow more chances (xG against them 1.85 vs 1.46) and have fewer on-target shots (3.0 vs 3.8), which favors goals for the visitors. Additionally the hosts have no clean sheets this season and their home matches have seen both teams score in 100% of cases, so I expect the visitors to score and hold their lead; therefore I select HT/FT 2/2 as the most likely scenario.
View first-half and second-half statisticsHalf-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| BFC Daugavpils | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 42% | 39% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.29 | 0.32 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
BFC Daugavpils is 117% better for: last-5 form.
2.6 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1.2 pts / match - Super Nova
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
BFC Daugavpils is 33% better for: goals scored per match.
1.5 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1.13 goals / match - Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils scores in 88% of matches (7 of 8 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 13% (1 of 8 matches).
Super Nova scores in 88% of matches (7 of 8 matches), while BFC Daugavpils keeps a clean sheet in 25% (2 of 8 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under - BFC Daugavpils
Over / Under - Super Nova
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
BFC Daugavpils is 63% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.63 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1 pts / match - Super Nova
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
BFC Daugavpils - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 38% of matches and wins 50%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.9 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Super Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 25% of matches and wins 38%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 2.20 | 1.60 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.8 | 1.0 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 0.8 | 1.8 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 20% | 40% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 100% | 40% |
| No goal | 40% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +4 | +1 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.00 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.6 | 0.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 1.0 | 0.8 |
| Average goals in match | 1.6 | 1.2 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 60% | 20% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 0% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 60% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (6 goals). Concedes most in 46-60 (7). Late-goal balance (76-90): -2 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 16-30 (3 goals). Concedes most in 31-45 (5). Late-goal balance (76-90): +2 - wins late phases.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| BFC Daugavpils | Liga | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▲ 3.13 | 2.80 | • 2.75 |
| Both teams scored | ▲ 63% | 61% | ▲ 75% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | • 50% | 51% | ▲ 63% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 25% | 20% | ▼ 13% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 63% | 78% | ▼ 75% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 100% | 83% | ▲ 100% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Lineups and player events
Verified starters, substitutes and recorded player events for this match.
Home team
Starting lineup
Substitutes
Away team
Starting lineup
Match timeline
Goals, cards and substitutions arranged in chronological order.
Referee and managers
Open their season profiles to compare match records, goals and disciplinary trends.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (4): BFC Daugavpils 0 - 3 - 1 Super Nova. Average goals 3.25, both teams scored in 100% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?
The Virsliga match finished BFC Daugavpils 0:1 Super Nova. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between BFC Daugavpils and Super Nova?
In the last 4 head-to-head matches BFC Daugavpils won 0, Super Nova won 1 and 3 ended level. These games averaged 3.25 goals, with both teams scoring in 100% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?
BFC Daugavpils score 1.50 goals per game on average and Super Nova 1.13. The Virsliga average is 2.80 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 51% of games. Both teams score in 63% of BFC Daugavpils's matches and 75% of Super Nova's.
What form are BFC Daugavpils and Super Nova in?
Over the last 5 games BFC Daugavpils have a 4-1-0 record (2.60 points per game) and Super Nova 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.