BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova: match statistics
BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova: form, goals and key statistics
Key match information
BFC Daugavpils play Super Nova in Virsliga (Latvia). The match date is 27 April 2026 at 17:00. Final score: 0:1.
Current form
BFC Daugavpils: 3-1-1, 2.00 points/match. Super Nova: 2-0-3, 1.20 points/match.
Goal statistics
BFC Daugavpils scores 1.26 and concedes 1.26 goals per match. Super Nova scores 1.09 and concedes 1.52. League average: 2.98 goals.
BTTS / Over / Under
BTTS: BFC Daugavpils 57%, Super Nova 61%. Over 2.5: BFC Daugavpils 43%, Super Nova 57%. League level: BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 55%.
xG, shots and style
BFC Daugavpils has higher xG: 1.54 vs 1.19. BFC Daugavpils: 12.7 shots per match, Super Nova: 9.0.
Match halves
BFC Daugavpils: half-time lead 26%, second-half goals 0.87. Super Nova: half-time lead 17%, second-half goals 0.52.
Goals by minute
BFC Daugavpils: 46-60 (13 goals). Super Nova: 76-90+ (7 goals). This is historical distribution, not a predicted goal minute.
League context
Virsliga: 2.98 goals per match, BTTS 56%, Over 2.5 55%.
Head-to-head
5 H2H matches: 0-4-1. Average goals 2.60, BTTS 80%.
Match description
BFC Daugavpils holds a clear form advantage: in the last 5 matches they have 4 wins and 1 draw (wwwwd), scoring 9 goals and conceding 4, which corresponds to an average of 2.6 points per game over that period. At home the hosts average 14.5 shots with 6.25 on target, have an average xG of 1.81 per match, concede only 0.5 goals and keep a clean sheet in 50% of home fixtures. Super Nova away averages 8.8 shots with 3.8 on target, has an xG of 1.2 and concedes on average 1.2 goals; in their last 5 matches the visitors scored 5 and conceded 9, achieving only 1.2 points per game. Despite higher shot conversion for the visitors (14% vs 9% for the hosts), lower possession (42% vs 53%) and substantially fewer created chances (avg. 3.8 on-target and 8.8 shots for the visitors vs 6.25 on-target and 14.5 shots for the hosts) favor BFC. Considering the xG advantage (1.81 vs 1.2), better home defense (0.5 vs 1.2) and form (avg. 2.6 points per game vs 1.2), I forecast a home win; I assess the probabilities at 68% for BFC, 18% for a draw and 14% for Super Nova.
Half-by-half
Match statistics
Pre-match profile— what do the season numbers say?
This is a team profile based on season data and form. Match-flow statistics are shown only after the fixture is played.
Team stats— who is more efficient?
Attack and defence comparison for both teams in the current season.
Shooting quality
| BFC Daugavpils | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|
| Accuracy (shots on target) | 38% | 40% |
| Chance quality (xG per shot) | 0.12 | 0.13 |
| Finishing (goals per shot on target) | 0.26 | 0.30 |
xG per shot around 0.08 usually means long-range attempts; 0.15+ usually means box chances. The style label comes from possession, shot volume and conversion.
* xG (expected goals) says how many goals a team should score from its chances. If actual goals are above xG, finishing is above average; if below xG, chances are being missed.
Team form— who is in better shape?
Last five matches and season record, overall and split by home and away matches.
BFC Daugavpils is 67% better for: last-5 form.
2 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1.2 pts / match - Super Nova
Goals— how do both teams score and concede?
How many goals both teams score and concede, plus how often they keep a clean sheet or fail to score.
BFC Daugavpils is 16% better for: goals scored per match.
1.26 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1.09 goals / match - Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils is 21% better for: goals conceded per match.
1.26 goals / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1.52 goals / match - Super Nova
BFC Daugavpils scores in 74% of matches (17 of 23 matches), while Super Nova keeps a clean sheet in 22% (5 of 23 matches).
Super Nova scores in 78% of matches (18 of 23 matches), while BFC Daugavpils keeps a clean sheet in 26% (6 of 23 matches).
How often they score at least...
How often they concede at least...
* Statistics include both teams' home and away matches in the current season.
Both teams scored (BTTS)— how often do both teams score?
How often both teams' matches have goals on both sides, compared with the league average.
Goal patterns
BTTS and goal count
Goal count (Over/Under)— how often do these matches cross the goal lines?
How often matches involving these teams clear goal thresholds, in the full match and in each half.
Full match - team comparison (Over)
Over / Under — BFC Daugavpils
Over / Under — Super Nova
1st half
2nd half
Match halves— when do the teams score more often?
How teams split performance between first and second half: goals, points, clean sheets and half-time state.
BFC Daugavpils is 25% better for: first-half form (half-time points).
1.3 pts / match - BFC Daugavpils · 1.04 pts / match - Super Nova
Before half-time (1st half)
After half-time (2nd half)
BFC Daugavpils - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 26% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Concedes 0.7 more goals per match after half-time - defensive level drops in the second half.
Super Nova - second-half results
Leads at half-time in 17% of matches and wins 35%. Also wins matches without a half-time lead.
Defence stays stable across the full match.
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 1.60 | 2.00 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 1.4 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.2 | 0.6 |
| Average goals in match | 0.6 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 60% | 80% |
| 2 goals | 0% | 60% |
| 3 goals | 0% | 60% |
| Clean sheet | 80% | 60% |
| No goal | 60% | 20% |
| Goal difference | +1 | +4 |
| 1st half | 2nd half | |
|---|---|---|
| Points per match | 0.80 | 1.20 |
| Goals scored / match | 0.4 | 0.8 |
| Goals conceded / match | 0.8 | 1.2 |
| Average goals in match | 1.2 | 2.0 |
| 1 goal | 40% | 100% |
| 2 goals | 40% | 80% |
| 3 goals | 20% | 20% |
| Clean sheet | 60% | 40% |
| No goal | 60% | 40% |
| Goal difference | -2 | -2 |
* Colours in tables show event frequency: green is common, yellow is moderate, red is rare. It is frequency, not a team rating.
Goals by minute— when do goals arrive?
Match phases in which both teams most often score and concede.
Most dangerous in minutes 46-60 (13 goli). Concedes most in 46-60 (10). Late-goal balance (76-90): -4 - late phases are a weakness.
Most dangerous in minutes 76-90 (7 goli). Concedes most in 31-45 (12). Late-goal balance (76-90): 0.
* Buckets 31-45 and 76-90 include added-time goals.
Additional team indicators— what do xG, efficiency and form show?
A comparison of chance quality, results and trends based on completed matches from the current season.
Match profile
BFC Daugavpils
Super Nova
* The estimated goal total and split, BTTS estimate, 0:0 risk and goal range are calculated from public season averages and frequencies for both teams. This is a statistical match profile, not a private model prediction or betting pick. The remaining indicators describe completed matches from the season.
League context— is this a high-scoring league?
How both teams compare with league-wide averages (Virsliga).
Teams vs league
| BFC Daugavpils | Liga | Super Nova | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Average goals in match | ▼ 2.52 | 2.98 | ▼ 2.61 |
| Both teams scored | • 57% | 56% | ▲ 61% |
| Min. 3 goals (Over 2.5) | ▼ 43% | 55% | ▲ 57% |
| Clean sheets | ▲ 26% | 24% | ▼ 22% |
| Goal before half-time | ▼ 52% | 75% | ▼ 61% |
| Goal after half-time | ▲ 87% | 84% | ▲ 87% |
^ green = above league average, ˇ red = below league average. This shows direction of the gap, not a team rating.
Head-to-head
Recent meetings (5): BFC Daugavpils 0 - 4 - 1 Super Nova. Average goals 2.60, both teams scored in 80% matches.
FAQ
What was the result of BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?
The Virsliga match finished BFC Daugavpils 0:1 Super Nova. Full match statistics, the half-by-half breakdown and head-to-head are on this page.
What is the head-to-head record between BFC Daugavpils and Super Nova?
In the last 5 head-to-head matches BFC Daugavpils won 0, Super Nova won 1 and 4 ended level. These games averaged 2.60 goals, with both teams scoring in 80% of them.
What do the goal statistics show before BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?
BFC Daugavpils score 1.26 goals per game on average and Super Nova 1.09. The Virsliga average is 2.98 goals, with Over 2.5 landing in 55% of games. Both teams score in 57% of BFC Daugavpils's matches and 61% of Super Nova's.
What form are BFC Daugavpils and Super Nova in?
Over the last 5 games BFC Daugavpils have a 3-1-1 record (2.00 points per game) and Super Nova 2-0-3 (1.20 points per game).
Where can I find a betting tip and analysis for BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova?
Here you can check the pre-match numbers for BFC Daugavpils vs Super Nova: form, H2H, goals and Over/Under. The pick itself, value and reasoning are published in the NoFluffPicks app.