BFC Daugavpils vs Tukums: match statistics

BFC Daugavpils come into this match in significantly better form: they have won 3 of their last 5 games, scoring 12 goals in the process, while Tukums have suffered 4 defeats and scored just 5 goals. The key factor is the visitors’ weakness away from home, where they have failed to win a single match, lost 67% of their games and conceded an average of as many as 2.58 goals per match. Daugavpils have a 50% win rate at home and concede just 0.79 goals per game, giving them a significant advantage over Tukums, who have a -15 goal difference away from home. The hosts also create slightly better chances, with an average xG of 1.62 compared to 1.44 for their opponents, while they also average 5.07 shots on target per match against 4.25 for the visitors. Tukums are capable of scoring an average of 1.33 goals away from home, so a goal for the visitors is possible; however, the advantage in form and defensive strength points towards a Daugavpils victory.

Daugavpils has recorded BTTS in 85% of its matches this season, while Tukums has done so in as many as 92%, both significantly above the league average of 55%. The hosts score an average of 1.85 goals, while Tukums concedes 2.58 goals per match and has not kept a single clean sheet. Tukums scores an average of 1.33 goals, while the Daugavpils defence also gives opponents opportunities, as confirmed by an average xG against them of 1.71. In their last five matches, Daugavpils produced an xG of 2.04, while Tukums, despite its weaker run of form, still recorded BTTS in 80% of its games. The most likely scenario is therefore for both teams to score, especially as both sides frequently combine BTTS with at least three goals: 62% for Daugavpils and 75% for Tukums.

Daugavpils score an average of 1.85 goals per game, while Tukums concede as many as 2.58, clearly increasing the hosts’ potential to score more than two goals. In their last five matches, Daugavpils scored 12 goals, averaging 2.4 per game, whereas Tukums conceded 10 goals during this period, an average of 2.0. At least three goals were scored in 69% of Daugavpils’ matches and 83% of Tukums’ games, while in the last five matches of both teams, this percentage stood at 80%. An additional argument is the very high scoring consistency: over 1.5 goals landed in 92% of the hosts’ matches and in every Tukums game. The strongest pick remains Over 1.5 goals, as the projected total of 3.15 goals provides a substantial safety margin even if the visitors are less clinical.

The strongest scenario is BFC Daugavpils leading at the break and securing a home win, as Tukums have been behind at half-time in 58% of their matches, conceding an average of 1.33 goals before the interval. Daugavpils are in clearly better recent form: across their last five matches, they have averaged 2.4 goals, won 60% of their games, and led at half-time in three of those five appearances. Their advantage should increase after the break, as the hosts score an average of 1.0 goals in second halves while conceding only 0.62, whereas Tukums concede as many as 1.25 goals per match after half-time. The visitors do have comparable average xG figures, 1.44 versus 1.39, but their conversion rate is only 11%, compared with Daugavpils' 16%, and they are yet to win a match this season. The high scoring rates of both teams—85% and 92% of matches featuring goals from both sides—increase the risk of a Tukums response, but do not alter the home advantage in the 1/1 scenario.